Oct 28: World Series Game 5, Brewers at Rays
A compass, not the map.
Every starter and hitter projected from pitch-level Statcast, rated with BTB Trust, scored for tonight's matchup in runs, and set beside the book's no-vig price. Every number is frozen at first pitch and graded in public. We point the way; you make the call.
Strikeout, hit, total-base and home-run projections with the matchup behind each, and a record frozen at first pitch.
Every hitter's matchup scored in runs, from the starter, pitch mix, bullpen and park, with confirmed and projected lineups.
Model cards that say what is proven and what isn't, the methods, and research notes that include the tests that failed.
Leaderboards, a page for every pitcher and hitter, BTB Trust and BTB Stuff, and plain-English reasons.
Our own metrics, built for matchup research.
BTB Trust rates how far a pitcher, hitter or bullpen can be trusted. The matchup score puts tonight's starter, pitch mix, bullpen and park into runs. Each one says what it measures and how it was tested.
On the record
The full record →Slate · Oct 28
Full slate →Latest research
All research →- Contact from balls in play onlyAlmost half of what the engine counted as a hitter's contact was foul balls. Dropping them fixes about 40% of the gap between our hitter projections and what actually happened.
- Strikeouts at the book's own lineThe model is good at counting strikeouts. It is not yet good at a harder question: will this pitcher go over the line the book set for him?
- What each engine channel earnsWe switched off, or halved, every hand-set piece of the engine and asked whether the numbers got better or worse on games the engine was never tuned on.
- Defense and bullpen rest don't fix game totalsTeam defense is real and bullpen fatigue sounds obvious. Neither made our game totals or win probabilities better, so neither shipped.
Top of the lineups
Every hitter →- Jackson Chourio MIL · vs Drew Rasmussen RHPMembers
- Jake Bauers MIL · vs Drew Rasmussen RHPMembers
- Christian Yelich MIL · vs Drew Rasmussen RHPMembers
- William Contreras MIL · vs Drew Rasmussen RHPMembers
- Brice Turang MIL · vs Drew Rasmussen RHPMembers
- Yandy Díaz TB · vs Jacob Misiorowski RHPMembers
- Jonathan Aranda TB · vs Jacob Misiorowski RHPMembers
- Junior Caminero TB · vs Jacob Misiorowski RHPMembers
- Liam Hicks TB · vs Jacob Misiorowski RHPMembers
- Jonny DeLuca TB · vs Jacob Misiorowski RHPMembers
The top of each posted lineup, by first pitch and batting order. Projections, not picks: frozen before first pitch and graded after.
BTB publishes projections and matchup reports, never plays or stakes. Where a book posts a line, our number sits beside it for context, every market carries a status earned on its frozen record, and the record is public, misses included.
How to read our number beside the book's →