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Adley Rutschman

BOS · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Adley Rutschman · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.300.300.400.339.17430.0%0.0%5.3%88.4101.40.0%16.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1437.314.351.686.444.30621.6%5.4%17.5%90.2112.111.5%26.9%38.5%
Last 30 G2983.240.313.467.352.31822.9%9.6%14.6%88.4112.19.1%32.7%40.0%
90 days41116.240.328.440.343.31721.6%11.2%17.0%89.0112.16.6%34.2%44.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 21%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G310.300.300.500.340.26630.0%0.0%5.3%90.898.80.0%28.6%85.7%
Last 15 G1123.130.130.217.148.16721.7%0.0%7.3%88.8105.90.0%22.2%50.0%
Last 30 G1936.139.139.194.144.15825.0%0.0%15.9%85.5105.90.0%22.2%40.7%
90 days2959.175.203.228.194.23016.9%3.4%14.0%86.4105.90.0%23.4%42.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 30%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.300.300.450.339.22230.0%0.0%5.3%89.7101.40.0%23.1%69.2%
Last 15 G1560.241.267.500.329.25221.7%3.3%13.5%89.6112.16.8%25.0%43.2%
Last 30 G30119.207.261.378.289.26923.5%6.7%15.0%87.5112.16.1%29.3%40.2%
90 days43175.217.286.363.293.28720.0%8.6%16.0%88.0112.14.1%30.1%43.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 123 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 24%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 8%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPChangeup81.686.823.195Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper81.382.328.085Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup83.693.112.836Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup84.682.0-2.171Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.098.516.628Double
Sep 22LHPFastball95.194.320.342Double
Sep 22LHPFastball95.498.820.401Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup77.483.522.469Single
Sep 20RHPFastball96.4101.410.816Single
Sep 20RHPSinker95.686.568.010Force out
Sep 19RHPFastball94.778.143.066Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball83.087.730.064Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400003
Sep 23411001
Sep 22435000
Sep 20411001
Sep 19412001
Sep 17412001
Sep 16400000
Sep 15400000
Sep 13412000
Sep 12422001
FormCold
Contact rating24Poor
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.294 / .289results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.299
Barrel%3.9%
Hard-hit%23.2%
K%19.2%
BB%9.3%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Adley Rutschman · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Adley Rutschman · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 19 vs Freddy Peralta: 51.8% · 1 HSep 20 vs Griffin Jax: 49.6% · 1 HSep 22 vs Parker Messick: 51.2% · 3 HSep 23 vs Foster Griffin: 60.0% · 1 HSep 24 vs Daniel Espino: 56.6% · no hitSep 25 vs Clay Holmes: 61.9% · 2 HSep 19Sep 25

Hits in 5 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 3.3. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

6 settled games
Games with a hit5 of 6BTB expected 3.3
Games with 2+ TB3 of 6BTB expected 1.9
Games with a HR0 of 6BTB expected 0.5
Talent gradeDwOBA .299 · K% 19.2%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Clay Holmes61.9%34.4%6.6%4220
Sep 24Daniel Espino56.6%29.0%7.9%4000
Sep 23Foster Griffin60.0%32.2%7.1%4110
Sep 22Parker Messick51.2%27.6%7.0%4350
Sep 20Griffin Jax49.6%31.2%8.8%4110
Sep 19Freddy Peralta51.8%34.2%9.9%4120
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.