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Carson Kelly
CHC · Hitter · 5 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.
Statcast
by window and pitcher handCarson Kelly · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 14 | .250 | .357 | .250 | .293 | .282 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 84.1 | 104.1 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 22.2% |
| Last 15 G | 14 | 40 | .306 | .375 | .361 | .335 | .326 | 15.0% | 5.0% | 18.4% | 83.3 | 105.2 | 3.3% | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Last 30 G | 27 | 79 | .286 | .367 | .429 | .353 | .317 | 13.9% | 8.9% | 16.2% | 85.5 | 105.4 | 3.4% | 35.6% | 32.2% |
| 90 days | 53 | 147 | .235 | .313 | .341 | .302 | .294 | 15.0% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 84.2 | 106.6 | 2.7% | 32.7% | 30.9% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 18%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 14%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 1 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .214 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 74.5 | 96.6 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Last 15 G | 3 | 6 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .223 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 72.7 | 96.6 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Last 30 G | 14 | 27 | .148 | .148 | .259 | .174 | .249 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 22.4% | 86.6 | 107.1 | 4.8% | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 30 | 62 | .263 | .323 | .439 | .333 | .302 | 19.4% | 8.1% | 20.8% | 86.0 | 107.1 | 6.7% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 18%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 0%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 17 | .200 | .294 | .200 | .241 | .270 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 18.8% | 81.7 | 104.1 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 46 | .262 | .326 | .310 | .291 | .312 | 15.2% | 4.3% | 19.3% | 81.8 | 105.2 | 2.9% | 31.4% | 37.1% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 106 | .247 | .311 | .381 | .308 | .300 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 18.1% | 85.8 | 107.1 | 3.8% | 36.2% | 32.5% |
| 90 days | 57 | 209 | .243 | .316 | .370 | .311 | .296 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 84.7 | 107.1 | 3.9% | 32.9% | 31.6% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 155 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 18%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 10%
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Splitter | 84.9 | 85.1 | -1 | .214 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sinker | 95.0 | 96.3 | -26 | .100 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sweeper | 86.6 | 82.1 | 76 | .015 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Cutter | 91.6 | 104.1 | 3 | .566 | Double play |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Sweeper | 80.1 | 72.5 | 5 | .185 | Single |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 95.1 | 50.8 | 24 | .136 | Out |
| Sep 19 | LHP | Fastball | 93.2 | 96.6 | 48 | .005 | Out |
| Sep 19 | LHP | Fastball | 92.1 | 66.7 | 40 | .491 | Out |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Curveball | 88.2 | 72.7 | -10 | .039 | Out |
| Sep 19 | LHP | Changeup | 88.1 | 60.1 | -44 | .145 | Force out |
| Sep 18 | RHP | Sinker | 92.2 | 94.7 | 3 | .449 | Single |
| Sep 18 | RHP | Slider | 92.4 | 98.9 | 14 | .811 | Single |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
FormNormal
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches44steady
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .309results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Talent
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.323
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%16.9%
BB%9.1%
A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.
xwOBA33.296
Avg EV1784.7
Max EV21107.1
Barrel%253.9%
Hard-hit%2732.9%
Sweet-spot%2231.6%
K%8016.3%
BB%528.6%
Whiff%8116.8%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
Hits in 2 of 4 settled games; the projections added up to 2.3. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.
Predicted vs what happened
4 settled gamesGames with a hit2 of 4BTB expected 2.3
Games with 2+ TB1 of 4BTB expected 1.2
Games with a HR0 of 4BTB expected 0.4
Talent gradeCwOBA .323 · K% 16.9%
One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.
| Date | Facing | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | H | TB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | Brayan Bello | 59.5% | 30.3% | 6.5% | not settled | |||
| Sep 24 | Tyler Phillips | 59.2% | 26.8% | 8.6% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | Janson Junk | 57.2% | 30.6% | 8.8% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 19 | Nick Lodolo | 58.7% | 35.7% | 11.1% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | Chase Burns | 54.9% | 27.6% | 9.4% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |