← All players

Carson Kelly

CHC · Hitter · 5 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Carson Kelly · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.357.250.293.28221.4%7.1%21.4%84.1104.10.0%33.3%22.2%
Last 15 G1440.306.375.361.335.32615.0%5.0%18.4%83.3105.23.3%33.3%40.0%
Last 30 G2779.286.367.429.353.31713.9%8.9%16.2%85.5105.43.4%35.6%32.2%
90 days53147.235.313.341.302.29415.0%8.8%14.6%84.2106.62.7%32.7%30.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 18%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G13.000.000.000.000.2140.0%0.0%0.0%74.596.60.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G36.000.000.000.000.22316.7%0.0%25.0%72.796.60.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1427.148.148.259.174.24922.2%0.0%22.4%86.6107.14.8%38.1%33.3%
90 days3062.263.323.439.333.30219.4%8.1%20.8%86.0107.16.7%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 18%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.200.294.200.241.27017.6%5.9%18.8%81.7104.10.0%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1546.262.326.310.291.31215.2%4.3%19.3%81.8105.22.9%31.4%37.1%
Last 30 G30106.247.311.381.308.30016.0%6.6%18.1%85.8107.13.8%36.2%32.5%
90 days57209.243.316.370.311.29616.3%8.6%16.8%84.7107.13.9%32.9%31.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 155 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 18%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSplitter84.985.1-1.214Out
Sep 24RHPSinker95.096.3-26.100Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.682.176.015Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.6104.13.566Double play
Sep 22RHPSweeper80.172.55.185Single
Sep 22RHPFastball95.150.824.136Out
Sep 19LHPFastball93.296.648.005Out
Sep 19LHPFastball92.166.740.491Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball88.272.7-10.039Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup88.160.1-44.145Force out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.294.73.449Single
Sep 18RHPSlider92.498.914.811Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300000
Sep 23100000
Sep 22511003
Sep 19400000
Sep 18422010
Sep 16422000
Sep 15100000
Sep 14411010
Sep 13100000
Sep 12300000
FormNormal
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches44steady
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .309results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.323
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%16.9%
BB%9.1%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Carson Kelly · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Carson Kelly · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Chase Burns: 54.9% · 2 HSep 19 vs Nick Lodolo: 58.7% · no hitSep 22 vs Janson Junk: 57.2% · 1 HSep 24 vs Tyler Phillips: 59.2% · no hitSep 25 vs Brayan Bello: 59.5% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 2 of 4 settled games; the projections added up to 2.3. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

4 settled games
Games with a hit2 of 4BTB expected 2.3
Games with 2+ TB1 of 4BTB expected 1.2
Games with a HR0 of 4BTB expected 0.4
Talent gradeCwOBA .323 · K% 16.9%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Brayan Bello59.5%30.3%6.5%not settled
Sep 24Tyler Phillips59.2%26.8%8.6%3000
Sep 22Janson Junk57.2%30.6%8.8%5110
Sep 19Nick Lodolo58.7%35.7%11.1%4000
Sep 18Chase Burns54.9%27.6%9.4%4220
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.