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Francisco Alvarez

NYM · Hitter · 4 games projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Francisco Alvarez · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.444.444.556.539.36822.2%0.0%5.6%98.8112.314.3%71.4%42.9%
Last 15 G1019.263.263.474.361.41221.1%0.0%22.9%98.0112.313.3%73.3%46.7%
Last 30 G2340.189.250.297.269.30640.0%7.5%35.9%97.1112.39.5%61.9%47.6%
90 days3770.169.300.237.272.29640.0%14.3%36.1%92.8112.36.5%54.8%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.364.364.727.459.38827.3%0.0%29.4%91.5113.725.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1441.256.293.436.316.29539.0%4.9%32.9%92.8113.713.0%60.9%34.8%
Last 30 G2877.208.260.375.277.25940.3%5.2%35.6%90.4113.712.2%56.1%31.7%
90 days55158.243.310.444.328.31033.5%8.2%32.2%90.2113.716.5%49.5%36.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 24%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.400.400.650.495.37925.0%0.0%17.1%94.9113.720.0%60.0%46.7%
Last 15 G1560.259.283.448.330.33233.3%3.3%29.9%94.9113.713.2%65.8%39.5%
Last 30 G30117.202.256.349.274.27540.2%6.0%35.7%92.7113.711.3%58.1%37.1%
90 days58228.222.307.384.311.30635.5%10.1%33.5%90.9113.713.9%50.8%36.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 122 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPChangeup81.3105.43.505Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup83.096.427.451Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.8113.75.672Single
Sep 22LHPCurveball82.394.127.202Error
Sep 22LHPFastball92.2112.3201.617Double
Sep 22RHPSplitter87.2104.6241.540Double
Sep 22RHPSinker91.189.225.087Out
Sep 20LHPSlider87.378.40.097Single
Sep 20LHPSinker95.296.853.009Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup89.1108.0-2.432Single
Sep 19RHPFastball97.1102.2301.170Home run
Sep 19RHPSweeper82.598.8-7.202Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23422001
Sep 22524001
Sep 20422001
Sep 19425101
Sep 17300001
Sep 15500002
Sep 14411001
Sep 13311001
Sep 11400011
Sep 8411001
FormHot
Contact rating64Average
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .330running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.328
Barrel%7.4%
Hard-hit%28.1%
K%34.0%
BB%9.9%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Francisco Alvarez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Francisco Alvarez · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 19 vs Andrew Painter: 44.2% · 2 HSep 20 vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45.7% · 2 HSep 23 vs Cody Bradford: 58.6% · 2 HSep 25 vs Andrew Alvarez: 55.7% · not settledSep 19Sep 25

Hits in 3 of 3 settled games; the projections added up to 1.5. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

3 settled games
Games with a hit3 of 3BTB expected 1.5
Games with 2+ TB3 of 3BTB expected 0.9
Games with a HR1 of 3BTB expected 0.4
Talent gradeBwOBA .328 · K% 34.0%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Andrew Alvarez55.7%32.1%12.6%not settled
Sep 23Cody Bradford58.6%33.1%14.0%4220
Sep 20Cristopher Sánchez45.7%28.0%11.7%4220
Sep 19Andrew Painter44.2%26.5%11.2%4251
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.