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Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Jackson Merrill · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.176.222.235.208.25033.3%5.6%29.4%91.5110.49.1%36.4%45.5%
Last 15 G1549.370.388.609.440.39126.5%4.1%31.2%95.4111.211.8%55.9%47.1%
Last 30 G2892.321.370.571.410.43420.7%6.5%25.4%96.4112.713.6%59.1%47.0%
90 days74234.293.342.558.395.40821.8%6.4%24.6%93.0112.713.9%51.5%43.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 165 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 27%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.000.15133.3%0.0%16.7%94.3100.90.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1017.294.294.765.435.43517.6%0.0%17.6%92.5111.421.4%57.1%35.7%
Last 30 G1938.278.297.611.409.42218.4%2.6%23.7%90.9111.416.7%46.7%40.0%
90 days4899.292.296.458.335.33027.3%1.0%24.8%92.2111.49.9%50.7%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 23%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.150.190.200.179.23633.3%4.8%27.5%91.9110.47.7%38.5%46.2%
Last 15 G1566.349.364.651.439.40324.2%3.0%27.6%94.6111.414.6%56.2%43.8%
Last 30 G30130.308.349.583.410.43020.0%5.4%24.9%94.7112.714.6%55.2%44.8%
90 days79333.293.328.527.377.38523.4%4.8%24.6%92.8112.712.7%51.3%42.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 236 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 8%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.4110.4211.630Double
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.879.213.521Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.394.923.234Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter89.578.3-27.044Force out
Sep 23RHPSplitter93.076.2-37.077Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball80.2100.9-2.371Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.079.8-37.048Out
Sep 22LHPSlider87.887.827.082Out
Sep 22RHPFastball99.791.127.118Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.9106.7-27.110Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup88.586.4-11.142Single
Sep 20RHPSinker97.9104.2-8.347Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412002
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20411001
Sep 19511013
Sep 18414102
Sep 17413001
Sep 16533002
Sep 15422000
Sep 14533001
FormNormal
Contact rating98Elite
Last 100 pitches71trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.372 / .398running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Jackson Merrill · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Jackson Merrill · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Tyler Phillips: 70.4% · 1 HSep 19 vs Eury Pérez: 66.6% · 1 HSep 22 vs Brock Stewart: 69.3% · no hitSep 23 vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 69.3% · no hitSep 24 vs Tyler Glasnow: 62.0% · 1 HSep 25 vs Brandon Pfaadt: 70.8% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 3 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 3.4. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit3 of 5BTB expected 3.4
Games with 2+ TB2 of 5BTB expected 2.2
Games with a HR1 of 5BTB expected 1.0
Talent grade—wOBA – · K% –

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Brandon Pfaadt70.8%46.8%18.8%not settled
Sep 24Tyler Glasnow62.0%33.7%17.8%4120
Sep 23Yoshinobu Yamamoto69.3%43.8%20.9%4000
Sep 22Brock Stewart69.3%49.3%19.2%4000
Sep 19Eury Pérez66.6%47.2%18.6%5110
Sep 18Tyler Phillips70.4%49.4%19.4%4141
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.