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Lars Nootbaar

ARI · Hitter · 5 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Lars Nootbaar · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.278.278.333.269.21433.3%0.0%28.1%89.9106.80.0%41.7%25.0%
Last 15 G1545.300.356.400.335.29128.9%8.9%19.2%92.1109.13.6%50.0%42.9%
Last 30 G3092.293.359.500.371.36619.6%9.8%15.9%93.3110.59.2%53.8%44.6%
90 days67212.249.340.384.328.33319.3%12.3%16.3%92.1110.56.2%50.3%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 19%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.4680.0%0.0%0.0%92.592.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G46.000.200.000.180.49716.7%16.7%9.1%81.4101.825.0%25.0%0.0%
Last 30 G711.125.300.125.250.46427.3%18.2%23.5%85.8101.833.3%33.3%16.7%
90 days1834.071.212.071.167.28326.5%14.7%24.5%84.5106.510.0%30.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 10%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.263.263.316.255.22831.6%0.0%27.3%90.1106.80.0%38.5%23.1%
Last 15 G1551.273.340.364.319.31227.5%9.8%18.0%90.8109.16.2%46.9%37.5%
Last 30 G30103.278.353.467.359.37620.4%10.7%16.7%92.7110.511.3%52.1%42.3%
90 days69246.225.322.343.306.32620.3%12.6%17.4%91.2110.56.7%47.9%34.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 165 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball92.773.516.660Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup85.479.43.225Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.4106.813.863Single
Sep 24RHPFastball92.481.6-11.086Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.193.4-33.063Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.199.14.457Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.981.3-19.056Out
Sep 20RHPSinker93.699.623.683Double
Sep 20RHPFastball94.1105.66.553Single
Sep 19RHPCutter94.870.771.003Out
Sep 19RHPCutter95.989.9-37.047Out
Sep 18LHPSinker86.892.55.468Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24633000
Sep 23300002
Sep 20323001
Sep 19300001
Sep 18400002
Sep 16500011
Sep 15600014
Sep 14536101
Sep 13322000
Sep 12200000
FormNormal
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.301 / .331running 30 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.306
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%32.1%
K%20.4%
BB%11.9%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Lars Nootbaar · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Lars Nootbaar · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Gerrit Cole: 52.7% · no hitSep 19 vs Cam Schlittler: 47.1% · no hitSep 23 vs Mason Adams: 58.7% · no hitSep 24 vs Tanner Gordon: 58.3% · 3 HSep 25 vs Casey Mize: 62.0% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 1 of 4 settled games; the projections added up to 2.2. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

4 settled games
Games with a hit1 of 4BTB expected 2.2
Games with 2+ TB1 of 4BTB expected 1.4
Games with a HR0 of 4BTB expected 0.5
Talent gradeBwOBA .306 · K% 20.4%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Casey Mize62.0%38.8%13.8%not settled
Sep 24Tanner Gordon58.3%36.2%14.7%6330
Sep 23Mason Adams58.7%37.4%12.6%3000
Sep 19Cam Schlittler47.1%32.4%9.9%3000
Sep 18Gerrit Cole52.7%34.2%10.7%4000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.