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Luis Arraez

PHI · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Luis Arraez · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.100.091.100.082.2419.1%0.0%0.0%86.998.80.0%30.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1233.192.303.192.242.3306.1%12.1%0.0%87.498.83.8%30.8%42.3%
Last 30 G2565.164.231.164.189.2904.6%7.7%1.6%86.598.81.8%17.9%35.7%
90 days68209.280.316.386.307.3134.3%5.7%3.9%86.6104.43.2%17.2%41.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 186 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 25%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.400.400.400.360.4310.0%0.0%0.0%92.697.90.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1331.310.355.448.352.3250.0%6.5%0.0%84.597.90.0%17.2%31.0%
Last 30 G2452.360.385.460.372.3091.9%3.8%3.6%81.8101.50.0%14.3%32.7%
90 days55106.333.358.402.347.3125.7%2.8%6.9%82.4101.50.0%15.6%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 23%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.238.250.214.3314.8%0.0%0.0%89.898.80.0%35.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1564.255.328.327.295.3273.1%9.4%0.0%85.898.81.8%23.6%36.4%
Last 30 G30117.257.299.305.271.2983.4%6.0%2.4%84.3101.51.0%16.2%34.3%
90 days74315.299.330.392.321.3134.8%4.8%4.9%85.2104.42.1%16.7%39.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 282 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 25%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker95.297.3-5.251Force out
Sep 24LHPSinker98.097.24.461Out
Sep 24LHPSlider89.087.628.076Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.084.157.027Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.198.89.564Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.591.45.396Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.788.673.005Out
Sep 22LHPSlider83.097.914.873Single
Sep 22LHPFastball92.788.236.023Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.190.027.118Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.789.8-3.243Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup86.068.927.885Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300000
Sep 23400000
Sep 22422000
Sep 20511000
Sep 19522001
Sep 18400000
Sep 17400011
Sep 16512030
Sep 15424010
Sep 13500000
FormHot
Contact rating58Average
Last 100 pitches50trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.324 / .326results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.322
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%15.5%
K%5.5%
BB%4.9%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Luis Arraez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Luis Arraez · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Zac Thornton: 71.2% · no hitSep 19 vs Christian Scott: 68.8% · 2 HSep 20 vs Jonah Tong: 69.2% · 1 HSep 22 vs Dustin May: 71.0% · 2 HSep 23 vs Logan Henderson: 72.4% · no hitSep 24 vs Shane Drohan: 67.2% · no hitSep 18Sep 24

Hits in 3 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 4.2. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

6 settled games
Games with a hit3 of 6BTB expected 4.2
Games with 2+ TB2 of 6BTB expected 2.3
Games with a HR0 of 6BTB expected 0.3
Talent gradeFwOBA .322 · K% 5.5%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 24Shane Drohan67.2%34.0%5.1%3000
Sep 23Logan Henderson72.4%40.0%6.0%4000
Sep 22Dustin May71.0%40.3%5.9%4220
Sep 20Jonah Tong69.2%40.3%4.7%5110
Sep 19Christian Scott68.8%39.1%4.8%5220
Sep 18Zac Thornton71.2%37.4%4.4%4000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.