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Matt Olson

ATL · Hitter · 7 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Matt Olson · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.154.143.154.129.18714.3%0.0%17.2%91.5106.40.0%58.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1342.289.310.447.343.3427.1%4.8%14.9%93.5109.510.8%64.9%32.4%
Last 30 G2685.218.259.346.274.33317.6%5.9%21.0%94.3110.49.2%64.6%33.8%
90 days69218.229.312.479.348.36523.9%10.6%22.9%93.6110.715.5%55.6%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 142 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.429.4291.000.593.6400.0%0.0%23.1%98.4107.514.3%85.7%28.6%
Last 15 G1022.286.318.619.393.39322.7%4.5%32.6%90.1107.512.5%68.8%31.2%
Last 30 G2142.225.262.425.295.28326.2%4.8%33.7%87.8107.56.9%51.7%24.1%
90 days59121.237.281.491.336.31330.6%5.0%27.1%90.2110.314.3%49.4%29.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 77 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 17%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.238.450.283.3389.5%0.0%19.0%94.0107.55.3%68.4%21.1%
Last 15 G1564.288.312.508.360.36012.5%4.7%20.8%92.5109.511.3%66.0%32.1%
Last 30 G30127.220.260.373.281.31620.5%5.5%25.2%92.3110.48.5%60.6%30.9%
90 days79339.232.301.484.343.34626.3%8.6%24.4%92.4110.715.1%53.4%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 219 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCutter86.2101.039.303Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.194.167.008Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.5106.417.660Sac fly
Sep 24RHPFastball94.497.4-17.132Out
Sep 24LHPFastball96.4105.80.480Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper81.7107.4321.809Home run
Sep 23LHPFastball92.0104.79.722Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper84.467.543.369Double
Sep 23RHPCutter98.7101.3-8.221Double play
Sep 22LHPSinker94.698.6-13.198Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.287.067.003Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.1107.55.590Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24500000
Sep 23426100
Sep 22411000
Sep 20400002
Sep 19422000
Sep 18536100
Sep 16411001
Sep 15422001
Sep 14400013
Sep 13536100
FormNormal
Contact rating90Top tier
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.349 / .365running 16 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Matt Olson · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Matt Olson · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Peter Lambert: 58.7% · 3 HSep 19 vs Hayden Wesneski: 62.0% · 2 HSep 20 vs Hunter Brown: 56.7% · no hitSep 22 vs Brandon Williamson: 60.9% · 1 HSep 23 vs Andrew Abbott: 64.1% · 2 HSep 24 vs Brady Singer: 61.2% · no hitSep 25 vs Eury Pérez: 58.2% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 4 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 3.6. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

6 settled games
Games with a hit4 of 6BTB expected 3.6
Games with 2+ TB3 of 6BTB expected 2.6
Games with a HR2 of 6BTB expected 1.2
Talent grade—wOBA – · K% –

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Eury Pérez58.2%37.9%17.7%not settled
Sep 24Brady Singer61.2%38.8%23.6%5000
Sep 23Andrew Abbott64.1%41.2%18.2%4261
Sep 22Brandon Williamson60.9%46.0%18.5%4110
Sep 20Hunter Brown56.7%44.1%18.4%4000
Sep 19Hayden Wesneski62.0%49.6%20.9%4220
Sep 18Peter Lambert58.7%42.1%19.8%5361
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.