← All players

Nolan Arenado

ARI · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Nolan Arenado · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.389.389.722.522.34133.3%0.0%31.0%84.7106.216.7%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1545.375.444.625.479.37822.2%8.9%24.4%86.9108.510.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 30 G3088.262.322.475.359.29019.3%6.8%23.6%83.7108.56.3%22.2%33.3%
90 days71218.250.323.485.354.29119.7%8.7%22.3%83.9108.56.5%28.8%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 16%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.750.7501.7501.038.5920.0%0.0%12.5%98.2107.325.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1118.562.6111.438.811.48211.1%11.1%27.5%92.2107.314.3%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1835.364.400.788.494.31717.1%5.7%27.0%88.4107.37.4%37.0%33.3%
90 days4076.319.382.739.464.29823.7%9.2%24.4%88.4107.39.8%39.2%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 51 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 14%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.455.455.909.616.38627.3%0.0%27.0%88.1107.318.8%43.8%50.0%
Last 15 G1563.429.492.857.574.40719.0%9.5%25.4%88.6108.511.4%38.6%50.0%
Last 30 G30123.292.344.566.398.29818.7%6.5%24.7%85.1108.56.7%26.7%33.3%
90 days73294.268.338.551.383.29320.7%8.8%22.9%85.0108.57.4%31.4%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 204 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 15%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 16%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider86.291.618.560Single
Sep 24RHPSinker90.673.347.174Single
Sep 24RHPFastball93.7102.5301.170Home run
Sep 24RHPCutter90.056.1-46.159Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper86.098.011.821Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.381.5-7.089Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball81.6107.317.684Double
Sep 22RHPSweeper83.5106.2251.766Home run
Sep 22LHPSinker90.3103.812.942Single
Sep 22RHPFastball95.865.654.015Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper84.096.341.053Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper82.787.4-21.048Fielder's choice
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24536101
Sep 23411002
Sep 22537101
Sep 20414101
Sep 19422001
Sep 18422000
Sep 16425100
Sep 15311000
Sep 14411003
Sep 13426100
FormHot
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.382 / .310running 71 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run6/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.356
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%22.6%
K%20.1%
BB%8.6%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Nolan Arenado · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Nolan Arenado · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Gerrit Cole: 55.6% · 2 HSep 19 vs Cam Schlittler: 52.6% · 2 HSep 22 vs Kyle Freeland: 63.8% · 3 HSep 23 vs Mason Adams: 63.4% · 1 HSep 24 vs Tanner Gordon: 62.1% · 3 HSep 25 vs Casey Mize: 62.7% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 5 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 3.0. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit5 of 5BTB expected 3.0
Games with 2+ TB4 of 5BTB expected 1.8
Games with a HR2 of 5BTB expected 0.6
Talent gradeNeuwOBA .356 · K% 20.1%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Casey Mize62.7%37.1%14.6%not settled
Sep 24Tanner Gordon62.1%34.9%14.9%5361
Sep 23Mason Adams63.4%37.3%13.6%4110
Sep 22Kyle Freeland63.8%43.7%15.5%5371
Sep 19Cam Schlittler52.6%30.5%10.1%4220
Sep 18Gerrit Cole55.6%30.5%10.4%4220
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.