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Otto Lopez

MIA · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Otto Lopez · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.200.333.400.329.35816.7%11.1%20.7%91.3103.18.3%58.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1555.289.418.378.368.37116.4%10.9%21.1%90.8110.08.3%47.2%41.7%
Last 30 G3093.312.398.388.366.35812.9%7.5%17.3%90.0110.05.8%46.4%36.2%
90 days74245.282.347.400.348.32111.0%7.3%14.8%87.3110.04.6%38.7%33.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 194 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 21%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.200.333.200.267.37916.7%16.7%26.7%82.9103.50.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G815.429.467.571.453.35913.3%6.7%16.1%85.0110.80.0%16.7%33.3%
Last 30 G1943.237.302.421.312.31418.6%9.3%19.5%85.4110.86.5%29.0%22.6%
90 days4190.235.267.383.290.31315.6%5.6%18.9%88.9110.85.7%35.7%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 70 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.200.333.350.313.36416.7%12.5%22.7%89.2103.56.2%50.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1570.322.429.424.386.36915.7%10.0%19.8%89.4110.86.2%39.6%39.6%
Last 30 G30136.288.368.398.349.34414.7%8.1%18.1%88.6110.86.0%41.0%32.0%
90 days74335.269.325.395.332.31912.2%6.9%15.9%87.7110.84.9%37.9%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 264 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball92.5103.50.429Out
Sep 24LHPSlider82.893.5-30.070Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup81.071.425.890Single
Sep 23RHPFastball93.195.26.484Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.395.4-2.321Force out
Sep 23RHPChangeup86.183.02.269Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter82.763.111.186Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper87.864.921.558Single
Sep 22RHPFastball99.1101.7-31.076Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.684.8-18.076Out
Sep 20RHPFastball92.8102.423.859Out
Sep 20RHPSinker95.0100.4-10.262Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411010
Sep 23411001
Sep 22611001
Sep 20400001
Sep 19614121
Sep 18423000
Sep 16522001
Sep 15500021
Sep 14500003
Sep 13411000
FormNormal
Contact rating60Average
Last 100 pitches95trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Otto Lopez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Otto Lopez · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Nick Pivetta: 65.0% · 2 HSep 19 vs Casey Mize: 68.0% · 1 HSep 22 vs Shota Imanaga: 67.6% · 1 HSep 23 vs Kevin Gausman: 69.4% · 1 HSep 24 vs Matthew Boyd: 65.1% · 1 HSep 25 vs Ray Kerr: 67.3% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 5 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 3.4. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit5 of 5BTB expected 3.4
Games with 2+ TB2 of 5BTB expected 2.0
Games with a HR1 of 5BTB expected 0.5
Talent grade—wOBA – · K% –

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Ray Kerr67.3%37.8%8.9%not settled
Sep 24Matthew Boyd65.1%34.5%10.8%4110
Sep 23Kevin Gausman69.4%40.3%10.5%4110
Sep 22Shota Imanaga67.6%43.4%13.0%6110
Sep 19Casey Mize68.0%42.5%9.6%6141
Sep 18Nick Pivetta65.0%35.8%9.2%4230
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.