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Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · Hitter · 5 games projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Rafael Flores Jr. · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.333.455.778.555.53827.3%18.2%23.5%97.3110.233.3%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1433.387.424.613.461.44024.2%6.1%23.7%96.0110.213.0%65.2%43.5%
Last 30 G2459.291.339.564.418.40828.8%6.8%28.1%92.8110.215.8%60.5%42.1%
90 days3176.268.316.521.383.38128.9%6.6%27.8%91.9110.214.3%59.2%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 25%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.143.333.286.294.29722.2%22.2%28.6%92.897.70.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1325.348.400.565.416.29720.0%8.0%28.6%89.1107.95.6%33.3%38.9%
Last 30 G2253.229.302.396.308.27430.2%9.4%27.8%89.6108.66.2%31.2%31.2%
90 days3174.258.338.470.352.30428.4%10.8%28.6%89.9108.611.1%35.6%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 9%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.250.400.562.432.42425.0%20.0%25.8%95.3110.218.2%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1558.370.414.593.441.37722.4%6.9%25.9%92.9110.29.8%51.2%41.5%
Last 30 G30112.262.321.485.366.34529.5%8.0%28.0%91.3110.211.4%47.1%37.1%
90 days41150.263.327.496.368.34328.7%8.7%28.1%91.0110.212.8%47.9%38.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 94 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 17%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 6%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPCutter89.092.5-8.174Out
Sep 23RHPSinker97.6107.54.587Out
Sep 23LHPFastball94.188.755.014Out
Sep 22RHPSlider86.874.1-6.065Out
Sep 22RHPSinker95.095.234.149Out
Sep 20RHPSlider85.6105.920.961Double
Sep 20RHPSlider89.7110.2292.036Home run
Sep 19LHPFastball92.997.714.873Double
Sep 19LHPCutter89.493.048.000Out
Sep 19RHPFastball99.091.1-4.185Single
Sep 17LHPSinker92.692.3-10.217Out
Sep 16LHPSinker92.7107.6261.982Home run
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400001
Sep 22400011
Sep 20426111
Sep 19423010
Sep 17400012
Sep 16414102
Sep 15444000
Sep 13411002
Sep 12111000
Sep 11411001
FormNormal
Contact rating87Excellent
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.362 / .361results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.335
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%28.9%
K%28.4%
BB%8.8%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Rafael Flores Jr. · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Rafael Flores Jr. · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 19 vs Noah Cameron: 53.8% · 2 HSep 20 vs Michael Wacha: 53.4% · 2 HSep 22 vs Andre Pallante: 57.5% · no hitSep 23 vs Matthew Liberatore: 61.7% · no hitSep 25 vs Jackson Jobe: 56.6% · not settledSep 19Sep 25

Hits in 2 of 4 settled games; the projections added up to 2.3. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

4 settled games
Games with a hit2 of 4BTB expected 2.3
Games with 2+ TB2 of 4BTB expected 1.4
Games with a HR1 of 4BTB expected 0.5
Talent gradeBwOBA .335 · K% 28.4%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Jackson Jobe56.6%33.1%13.4%not settled
Sep 23Matthew Liberatore61.7%37.1%15.9%4000
Sep 22Andre Pallante57.5%34.6%11.5%4000
Sep 20Michael Wacha53.4%33.8%11.4%4261
Sep 19Noah Cameron53.8%35.3%12.6%4230
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.