MLBengine v14
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Ryan McMahon

NYY · Hitter · 3 games projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

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Sep 25 · 3:10 PM CTvs Brandon Young RHPBAL @ NYY1+ hit 52.9%2+ TB 30.5%HR 11.8%

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Ryan McMahon · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.143.200.357.300.20546.7%6.7%29.6%83.2109.114.3%42.9%0.0%
Last 15 G1546.140.196.233.219.21723.9%6.5%21.4%85.3109.13.2%25.8%19.4%
Last 30 G2990.212.289.325.289.26225.6%10.0%24.0%87.4110.95.3%29.8%29.8%
90 days47134.221.284.369.296.27627.6%8.2%25.6%90.0110.95.9%41.2%32.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.5300.0%0.0%0.0%66.566.50.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G45.500.600.500.500.4840.0%20.0%0.0%66.587.30.0%0.0%75.0%
Last 30 G89.250.333.250.278.36222.2%11.1%14.3%70.2107.20.0%16.7%66.7%
90 days1821.118.286.118.219.34323.8%9.5%25.9%80.4107.20.0%25.0%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 33%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.133.188.333.281.22643.8%6.2%28.6%81.1109.112.5%37.5%12.5%
Last 15 G1551.170.235.255.247.24421.6%7.8%20.2%83.2109.12.9%22.9%25.7%
Last 30 G3099.216.293.318.288.27125.3%10.1%23.2%85.8110.94.8%28.6%33.3%
90 days50155.209.284.338.285.28527.1%8.4%25.6%88.8110.95.2%39.2%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 97 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 23%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 9%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPFastball92.1109.1401.351Home run
Sep 23LHPSinker95.466.519.530Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup86.279.02.154Single
Sep 22RHPCutter89.569.051.126Out
Sep 19RHPSinker92.635.2-69.202Force out
Sep 18RHPFastball93.593.1-3.228Error
Sep 16RHPCutter91.099.072.005Out
Sep 16RHPSlider87.697.9-2.318Out
Sep 14RHPFastball91.680.34.211Out
Sep 14RHPFastball91.781.970.003Out
Sep 14RHPFastball97.246.2-41.207Single
Sep 13RHPFastball95.689.050.010Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23425101
Sep 22200001
Sep 19200010
Sep 18200001
Sep 16600004
Sep 14311000
Sep 13300000
Sep 11411000
Sep 10411010
Sep 9400001
FormCold
Contact rating30Below average
Last 100 pitches8trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.287 / .296results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.299
Barrel%4.5%
Hard-hit%25.6%
K%28.2%
BB%9.7%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Ryan McMahon · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Ryan McMahon · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 19 vs Brandon Pfaadt: 45.3% · no hitSep 22 vs Drew Rasmussen: 40.5% · no hitSep 23 vs Mason Englert: 51.7% · 2 HSep 19Sep 23

Hits in 1 of 3 settled games; the projections added up to 1.4. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

3 settled games
Games with a hit1 of 3BTB expected 1.4
Games with 2+ TB1 of 3BTB expected 0.8
Games with a HR1 of 3BTB expected 0.3
Talent gradeNeuwOBA .299 · K% 28.2%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 23Mason Englert51.7%28.9%10.6%4251
Sep 22Drew Rasmussen40.5%23.9%8.6%2000
Sep 19Brandon Pfaadt45.3%28.5%8.2%2000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.