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Sal Frelick

MIL · Hitter · 4 games projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Sal Frelick · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G44.500.500.500.450.2760.0%0.0%0.0%84.290.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1113.333.333.333.375.4190.0%0.0%0.0%79.0101.10.0%15.4%30.8%
Last 30 G1626.261.320.304.322.3447.7%7.7%6.8%78.2102.00.0%18.2%27.3%
90 days2034.310.394.379.379.3945.9%8.8%6.0%80.3102.00.0%14.3%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.250.417.375.354.2810.0%25.0%0.0%76.996.50.0%11.1%11.1%
Last 15 G1236.125.194.188.178.23011.1%8.3%3.3%84.6104.13.4%24.1%17.2%
Last 30 G2572.164.208.269.211.21515.3%5.6%7.3%84.9104.11.8%31.6%21.1%
90 days3082.197.244.303.242.24213.4%6.1%7.4%85.0104.11.5%31.8%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 14%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.333.438.417.378.2800.0%18.8%0.0%79.196.50.0%7.7%7.7%
Last 15 G1549.182.229.227.227.2778.2%6.1%2.5%82.9104.12.4%21.4%21.4%
Last 30 G3098.189.237.278.240.24813.3%6.1%7.1%83.1104.11.3%27.8%22.8%
90 days35116.229.287.324.281.28611.2%6.9%7.0%83.6104.11.1%26.6%28.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 94 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 17%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup89.584.05.370Double
Sep 24RHPCutter92.161.268.000Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball78.590.6-23.071Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.668.410.220Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.088.55.403Double play
Sep 20RHPFastball95.396.5-9.254Out
Sep 20RHPSplitter83.367.0-27.048Force out
Sep 20LHPSinker95.570.5-38.111Out
Sep 18LHPFastball97.790.0-3.283Single
Sep 17RHPFastball96.689.5-2.297Single
Sep 17RHPCutter90.853.058.003Out
Sep 17RHPFastball95.281.544.016Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412020
Sep 23300000
Sep 20300000
Sep 18211010
Sep 17422000
Sep 16200000
Sep 13200000
Sep 12500000
Sep 9411001
Sep 8111000
FormCold
Contact rating16Poor
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.274 / .276results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.320
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%21.9%
K%14.1%
BB%7.6%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Sal Frelick · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Sal Frelick · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 20 vs Brandon Young: 53.7% · no hitSep 23 vs Aaron Nola: 59.8% · no hitSep 24 vs Andrew Painter: 56.6% · 1 HSep 25 vs Michael McGreevy: 61.5% · not settledSep 20Sep 25

Hits in 1 of 3 settled games; the projections added up to 1.7. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

3 settled games
Games with a hit1 of 3BTB expected 1.7
Games with 2+ TB1 of 3BTB expected 0.9
Games with a HR0 of 3BTB expected 0.2
Talent gradeCwOBA .320 · K% 14.1%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Michael McGreevy61.5%31.4%5.8%not settled
Sep 24Andrew Painter56.6%26.3%5.9%4120
Sep 23Aaron Nola59.8%30.8%6.6%3000
Sep 20Brandon Young53.7%29.9%6.0%3000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.