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Trevor Story

BOS · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Trevor Story · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.143.250.143.200.19037.5%12.5%60.0%94.0105.30.0%25.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1122.300.364.450.362.30936.4%9.1%37.5%84.2108.28.3%25.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1324.318.375.455.370.29437.5%8.3%40.9%82.0108.27.7%23.1%30.8%
90 days1324.318.375.455.370.29437.5%8.3%40.9%82.0108.27.7%23.1%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 13 balls in play
Ground 62%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.182.182.455.264.18227.3%0.0%36.0%81.5102.70.0%12.5%12.5%
Last 15 G1536.222.222.389.260.20727.8%0.0%24.4%81.5104.63.8%23.1%19.2%
Last 30 G2159.305.305.475.335.23628.8%0.0%24.6%84.0105.27.1%26.2%28.6%
90 days2159.305.305.475.335.23628.8%0.0%24.6%84.0105.27.1%26.2%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 19%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.167.211.333.237.18531.6%5.3%42.9%85.7105.30.0%16.7%8.3%
Last 15 G1558.250.276.411.297.24531.0%3.4%28.7%82.3108.25.3%23.7%23.7%
Last 30 G2183.309.325.469.345.25231.3%2.4%28.8%83.5108.27.3%25.5%29.1%
90 days2183.309.325.469.345.25231.3%2.4%28.8%83.5108.27.3%25.5%29.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 55 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 18%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 11%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball92.790.8-21.106Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper79.986.937.021Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper84.670.11.111Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.488.8-1.329Double play
Sep 20RHPSweeper81.073.1-16.055Out
Sep 20RHPFastball91.6102.737.824Home run
Sep 19RHPSweeper85.494.725.274Out
Sep 19RHPSlider87.359.4-14.068Out
Sep 19RHPSinker90.381.75.334Single
Sep 18LHPFastball89.993.0-17.165Out
Sep 18LHPChangeup86.7105.34.529Single
Sep 18RHPFastball93.781.445.010Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300002
Sep 23400002
Sep 20414101
Sep 19411001
Sep 18411010
Sep 17425102
Sep 16311001
Sep 15411011
Sep 13422001
Sep 12412002
FormNormal
Contact rating10Poor
Last 100 pitches5steady
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .261running 85 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.333
Barrel%5.7%
Hard-hit%25.7%
K%27.5%
BB%4.9%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Trevor Story · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Trevor Story · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Ian Seymour: 63.0% · 1 HSep 19 vs Freddy Peralta: 65.3% · 1 HSep 20 vs Griffin Jax: 63.8% · 1 HSep 23 vs Foster Griffin: 69.4% · no hitSep 24 vs Daniel Espino: 63.3% · no hitSep 25 vs David Peterson: 64.4% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 3 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 3.2. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit3 of 5BTB expected 3.2
Games with 2+ TB1 of 5BTB expected 1.5
Games with a HR1 of 5BTB expected 0.5
Talent gradeNeuwOBA .333 · K% 27.5%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25David Peterson64.4%35.0%10.6%not settled
Sep 24Daniel Espino63.3%27.8%9.1%3000
Sep 23Foster Griffin69.4%33.4%10.3%4000
Sep 20Griffin Jax63.8%30.7%9.6%4141
Sep 19Freddy Peralta65.3%32.1%10.6%4110
Sep 18Ian Seymour63.0%28.7%12.7%4110
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.