Game total

Research only by policy. In the backtest it is not measurably more accurate than the league-wide rate.

Research only: Tier 3 by policy. Published for context, never as a basis for a bet, until a deliberate product change promotes it. Tier 3: Research only until proven.

The backtest

engine v14 · every graded game · walk-forward

Graded962over 72 dates

Skill vs league rate-0.7%-3.2% to 1.8% (95%)

Predicted, on average8.81what happened: 8.94

Typical miss (RMSE)4.57correlation .076

Skill is how much lower the mean squared error of the served number is than always guessing the league-wide rate known at the time. Every date is predicted using only earlier dates, with calibration curves refit each date the way the site serves them.

The live test · engine v14

0 of 200 settled results · 0 of 7 dates

Only predictions frozen before first pitch, under the engine now serving, count. The count restarts with every engine version, which is why nothing is Validated yet.

Against the book's closing price

Not measured for this market yet: there is no clean pre-game price sample to compare against.