Brayan Bello

BOS · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 4:35 PM CT

Brayan BelloRHP · BOS vs CHC

4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings

Over 4.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%22.3%

BB%5.3%

Whiff%10.8%

Velo92.0

BTB Stuff93

Location104

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker36%10396.03.7%

Changeup23%8389.511.5%

Sweeper15%9286.316.5%

Cutter13%10288.018.9%

Fastball13%7596.47.8%

Other1%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	93	38%	12%	14%	.224
Sep 7	103	32%	11%	18%	.259
Sep 2	69	0%	7%	29%	.515

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameCHC @ BOS →Fenway Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Sinker	Hard	34%	96.0	+16.2″	+6.4″
Changeup	Offspeed	24%	89.6	+16.2″	+5.9″
Sweeper	Breaking	16%	86.4	-9.7″	-3.4″
Cutter	Hard	13%	88.0	0.0″	+1.9″
Fastball	Hard	13%	96.5	+6.0″	+12.2″

The lineup he faces

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Pete Crow-Armstrong25%

2Seiya Suzuki24%

3Michael Busch25%

4Michael Conforto23%

5Ian Happ25%

6Nico Hoerner11%

7Pedro Ramírez21%

8Carson Kelly16%

9Matt Shaw23%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Changeup+6 pts

Sinker-8 pts

Sweeper+6 pts

Fastball+5 pts

Cutter-8 pts

Brayan Bello with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Changeup	24%	29%	19.6%	12.0%	18.6%
Sinker	34%	26%	5.9%	20.0%	17.0%
Sweeper	16%	22%	35.7%	21.8%	19.3%
Fastball	13%	18%	16.7%	17.4%	18.0%
Cutter	13%	6%	40.0%	28.6%	17.9%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts11BTB expected 2.7 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	CHC	4.3	3.5	65.7%	56.3%	not settled
Sep 19	TB	2.7	2.5	51.6%	53.1%	11