Casey Mize

SD · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 8:40 PM CT

Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI

3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings

Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%17.1%

BB%7.4%

Whiff%8.4%

Velo89.7

BTB Stuff92

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball35%10193.25.5%

Slider29%9087.37.8%

Splitter22%8087.815.2%

Sinker8%9493.78.8%

Sweeper4%8981.04.2%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	74	11%	8%	17%	.568
Sep 14	75	0%	3%	25%	.417
Sep 8	90	32%	14%	46%	.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameARI @ SD →Petco Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	36%	93.2	+9.0″	+17.9″
Slider	Breaking	30%	87.3	-4.0″	+4.9″
Splitter	Offspeed	22%	87.7	+14.3″	+6.5″
Sinker	Hard	8%	93.6	+13.2″	+14.6″
Sweeper	Breaking	4%	80.9	-14.2″	-8.2″

The lineup he faces

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Lars Nootbaar20%

2Ketel Marte16%

3Gabriel Moreno14%

4Geraldo Perdomo15%

5Corbin Carroll23%

6Nolan Arenado20%

7Tim Tawa24%

8Pavin Smith22%

9Jordan Lawlar31%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+2 pts

Splitter+10 pts

Slider-12 pts

Sweeper+5 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	36%	38%	10.1%	15.1%	18.0%
Splitter	22%	32%	27.9%	16.5%	19.0%
Slider	30%	18%	17.6%	13.3%	21.1%
Sweeper	4%	9%	16.7%	10.0%	19.3%
Sinker	8%	3%	30.0%	27.3%	17.0%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts2BTB expected 4.4 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	ARI	3.6	–	–	–	not settled
Sep 19	MIA	4.4	4.5	44.0%	46.2%	2