David Peterson

CHC · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 4:35 PM CT

David PetersonLHP · CHC vs BOS

5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings

Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.9%

BB%10.2%

Whiff%9.7%

Velo89.2

BTB Stuff96

Location98

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker31%8892.26.5%

Fastball26%10092.810.7%

Slider20%9986.513.8%

Changeup15%10285.59.4%

Curveball9%9279.87.6%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	83	32%	12%	23%	.205
Sep 14	85	30%	14%	17%	.209
Sep 8	83	20%	7%	15%	.392

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameCHC @ BOS →Fenway Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Sinker	Hard	31%	92.3	+13.6″	+8.4″
Fastball	Hard	26%	92.8	+2.3″	+11.6″
Slider	Breaking	19%	86.6	-2.8″	+3.1″
Changeup	Offspeed	15%	85.6	+13.2″	+3.6″
Curveball	Breaking	8%	80.0	-4.1″	-8.6″

The lineup he faces

David Peterson CHC · LHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Roman Anthony21%

2Jahmai Jones31%

3Wilyer Abreu19%

4Trevor Story28%

5Nick Sogard25%

6Andruw Monasterio17%

7Jarren Duran21%

8Isiah Kiner-Falefa24%

9Connor Wong21%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

David Peterson CHC · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+4 pts

Slider+10 pts

Sinker-13 pts

Changeup+0 pts

Curveball-2 pts

Other+0 pts

David Peterson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	26%	30%	20.3%	17.7%	18.6%
Slider	19%	30%	25.0%	17.1%	21.6%
Sinker	31%	18%	14.6%	13.6%	17.7%
Changeup	15%	15%	18.5%	19.6%	18.3%
Curveball	8%	7%	50.0%	32.0%	21.2%
Other	0%	0%	–	100.0%	14.3%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts7BTB expected 4.9 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line–over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	BOS	5.1	4.5	61.0%	55.4%	not settled
Sep 20	CIN	4.9	–	–	–	7