Gavin Williams

CLE · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 6:40 PM CT

Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE vs KC

7.2projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings

Over 6.5: 58% (red bars) · under: 42%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%39.1%

BB%7.6%

Whiff%16.9%

Velo91.3

BTB Stuff110

Location98

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sweeper32%12487.924.6%

Fastball31%11198.314.8%

Curveball22%9882.513.7%

Sinker13%9497.98.6%

Cutter2%10993.215.6%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	89	38%	24%	21%	.148
Sep 14	113	29%	19%	13%	.296
Sep 6	99	46%	16%	21%	.267

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameCLE @ KC →Kauffman Stadium

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Sweeper	Breaking	32%	87.8	-12.2″	-1.2″
Fastball	Hard	31%	98.4	+10.0″	+14.5″
Curveball	Breaking	22%	82.4	-10.6″	-15.1″
Sinker	Hard	13%	97.9	+14.5″	+9.4″

The lineup he faces

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Carter Jensen26%

2Bobby Witt Jr.17%

3Jac Caglianone19%

4Maikel Garcia19%

5Vinnie Pasquantino13%

6Salvador Perez19%

7Michael Massey16%

8John Rave21%

9Kyle Isbel24%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+11 pts

Fastball+1 pts

Curveball-4 pts

Sinker-8 pts

Cutter-1 pts

Gavin Williams with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	32%	43%	44.3%	29.2%	19.3%
Fastball	31%	33%	30.2%	25.9%	18.0%
Curveball	22%	19%	34.6%	23.7%	20.0%
Sinker	13%	4%	7.1%	22.7%	17.0%
Cutter	2%	1%	40.0%	33.3%	17.9%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts9BTB expected 8.3 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	KC	6.5	6.5	47.1%	54.3%	not settled
Sep 20	OAK	8.3	7.5	58.8%	49.1%	9