Griffin Jax

TB · Starting pitcher · 1 starts projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 26 · 6:15 PM CT

Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI

4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings

Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%27.7%

BB%6.7%

Whiff%13.2%

Velo91.1

BTB Stuff112

Location104

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sweeper25%11387.011.0%

Sinker24%11495.13.6%

Changeup23%11390.423.8%

Fastball19%11395.615.0%

Curveball9%10384.513.3%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	74	26%	14%	16%	.216
Sep 15	67	41%	15%	12%	.126
Sep 9	66	11%	6%	33%	.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameTB @ PHI →Citizens Bank Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Sweeper	Breaking	25%	87.0	-14.0″	-1.6″
Sinker	Hard	24%	95.1	+16.9″	+11.0″
Changeup	Offspeed	23%	90.5	+16.0″	+3.4″
Fastball	Hard	19%	95.6	+8.3″	+18.1″
Curveball	Breaking	9%	84.5	-4.7″	-14.4″

The lineup he faces

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Kyle Schwarber31%

2Trea Turner21%

3Bryce Harper20%

4Luis Arraez6%

5Alec Bohm17%

6Bryan De La Cruz22%

7Bryson Stott17%

8J.T. Realmuto24%

9Justin Crawford14%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Changeup+5 pts

Fastball+8 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Sweeper-8 pts

Curveball+0 pts

Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Changeup	23%	28%	45.1%	36.2%	18.6%
Fastball	19%	27%	22.5%	17.6%	18.0%
Sinker	24%	18%	9.1%	28.3%	16.9%
Sweeper	25%	18%	30.0%	13.6%	19.3%
Curveball	9%	9%	45.5%	26.1%	20.1%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts5BTB expected 5.6 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 20	BOS	5.6	4.5	65.6%	56.4%	5