Hunter Brown

HOU · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 8:40 PM CT

Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK

6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings

Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%26.5%

BB%11.5%

Whiff%11.0%

Velo92.4

BTB Stuff100

Location98

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker31%11596.29.0%

Fastball30%8996.28.1%

Curveball19%9583.516.3%

Changeup10%9187.514.8%

Slider9%10291.09.9%

Cutter2%10293.017.4%

Sweeper1%7687.520.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	98	48%	17%	19%	.238
Sep 15	91	50%	15%	15%	.212
Sep 9	90	33%	11%	24%	.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameHOU @ OAK →Sutter Health Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Sinker	Hard	31%	96.2	+15.6″	+10.9″
Fastball	Hard	30%	96.3	+8.5″	+16.3″
Curveball	Breaking	19%	83.6	-6.1″	-16.4″
Changeup	Offspeed	10%	87.5	+13.6″	+4.7″
Slider	Breaking	9%	91.2	-3.6″	+5.6″

The lineup he faces

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Henry Bolte27%

2Lawrence Butler25%

3Shea Langeliers34%

4Jeff McNeil11%

5Zack Gelof24%

6Donovan Walton17%

7Carlos Cortes23%

8Tommy White15%

9Jonah Heim20%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-1 pts

Curveball+10 pts

Sinker-6 pts

Slider+0 pts

Changeup-3 pts

Sweeper+0 pts

Cutter-1 pts

Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	30%	28%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%
Curveball	19%	28%	42.2%	23.8%	20.0%
Sinker	31%	25%	13.4%	20.4%	17.0%
Slider	9%	10%	12.0%	19.5%	21.1%
Changeup	10%	7%	35.7%	16.7%	18.6%
Sweeper	1%	1%	50.0%	20.0%	19.3%
Cutter	2%	1%	100.0%	33.3%	17.9%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts10BTB expected 5.5 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line0 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	OAK	6.0	5.5	55.4%	52.8%	not settled
Sep 20	ATL	5.5	6.5	31.1%	42.8%	10