Jonah Tong

NYM · Starting pitcher · 1 starts projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 26 · 11:35 AM CT

Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH

5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings

Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%26.9%

BB%9.0%

Whiff%13.6%

Velo90.3

BTB Stuff106

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball44%11494.512.1%

Cutter23%11090.111.3%

Changeup23%9887.418.0%

Curveball10%8178.715.4%

Last 3 startsStable

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	95	22%	8%	35%	.333
Sep 14	83	26%	14%	22%	.220
Sep 7	87	33%	18%	19%	.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameNYM @ WSH →Nationals Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	44%	94.6	+6.5″	+19.6″
Cutter	Hard	23%	90.1	-2.5″	+14.5″
Changeup	Offspeed	23%	87.4	+14.4″	+9.1″
Curveball	Breaking	10%	78.7	-6.8″	-13.0″

The lineup he faces

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1James Wood22%

2Andrés Chaparro23%

3Brady House24%

4CJ Abrams23%

5Dylan Crews26%

6Yohandy Morales24%

7Harry Ford21%

8Jacob Young15%

9Nasim Nuñez18%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-2 pts

Changeup+12 pts

Cutter-9 pts

Curveball-0 pts

Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	44%	42%	16.7%	14.3%	18.0%
Changeup	23%	35%	35.0%	27.6%	18.6%
Cutter	23%	14%	16.7%	16.7%	17.9%
Curveball	10%	10%	60.0%	37.5%	20.1%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts5BTB expected 4.7 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line0 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 20	PHI	4.7	4.5	49.7%	45.5%	5