Quinn Mathews

STL · Starting pitcher · 1 starts projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 26 · 6:10 PM CT

Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL

5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings

Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.4%

BB%9.4%

Whiff%10.8%

Velo87.3

BTB Stuff92

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball39%10593.49.2%

Slider23%8784.811.7%

Changeup17%6783.019.2%

Curveball13%9475.76.7%

Sinker9%9292.85.9%

Last 3 startsStable

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	96	10%	9%	38%	.327
Sep 14	99	32%	14%	4%	.231
Sep 8	99	16%	10%	32%	.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameSTL @ MIL →American Family Field

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	39%	93.4	+5.3″	+16.4″
Slider	Breaking	23%	84.9	-3.2″	+1.3″
Changeup	Offspeed	17%	83.0	+11.4″	+4.3″
Curveball	Breaking	13%	75.6	-9.6″	-12.2″
Sinker	Hard	9%	92.7	+11.4″	+12.3″

The lineup he faces

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Garrett Mitchell25%

2Brice Turang22%

3William Contreras15%

4Jake Bauers22%

5Gary Sánchez20%

6Luis Lara19%

7Cooper Pratt23%

8Sal Frelick16%

9Joey Ortiz23%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+10 pts

Fastball-7 pts

Changeup+6 pts

Curveball-4 pts

Sinker-4 pts

Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	23%	32%	28.3%	15.9%	21.6%
Fastball	39%	32%	22.4%	15.0%	18.6%
Changeup	17%	22%	25.9%	12.5%	18.3%
Curveball	13%	10%	18.8%	16.7%	21.3%
Sinker	9%	4%	0.0%	27.3%	17.7%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts3BTB expected 5.5 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 20	WSH	5.5	5.5	46.4%	44.4%	3