Ray Kerr

ATL · Starting pitcher · 1 starts projected since Sep 25, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 6:10 PM CT

Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA

2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings

Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.0%

BB%1.8%

Whiff%11.7%

Velo89.1

BTB Stuff89

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball36%10495.012.5%

Curveball33%7681.118.6%

Sinker21%8494.60.0%

Offspeed7%–80.37.7%

Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameATL @ MIA →loanDepot park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	36%	95.1	+8.6″	+14.9″
Curveball	Breaking	33%	81.2	-0.8″	-3.2″
Sinker	Hard	21%	94.7	+14.8″	+10.4″

The lineup he faces

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Otto Lopez16%

2Jakob Marsee25%

3Heriberto Hernández22%

4Javier Sanoja9%

5Griffin Conine26%

6Agustín Ramírez27%

7Deyvison De Los Santos23%

8Joe Mack22%

9Jared Serna26%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+8 pts

Curveball-8 pts

Offspeed+14 pts

Sinker-9 pts

Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	36%	43%	27.3%	26.1%	18.6%
Curveball	33%	25%	33.3%	23.1%	21.2%
Offspeed	7%	21%	25.0%	9.1%	7.7%
Sinker	21%	11%	0.0%	16.7%	17.7%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts–BTB expected – over 0 starts

BTB's side at the line–over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	MIA	2.3	–	–	–	not settled