Rhett Lowder

CIN · Starting pitcher · 1 starts projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 26 · 2:07 PM CT

Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR

3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings

Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%16.5%

BB%7.8%

Whiff%7.1%

Velo89.5

BTB Stuff90

Location107

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker29%8793.81.9%

Slider27%9885.615.4%

Changeup19%9186.95.0%

Fastball18%7994.24.7%

Curveball6%9680.83.2%

Other0%––0.0%

Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	60	17%	8%	28%	.456
Sep 15	91	18%	8%	23%	.382
Sep 9	72	21%	6%	42%	.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameCIN @ TOR →Rogers Centre

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Sinker	Hard	30%	93.7	+16.6″	+6.5″
Slider	Breaking	27%	85.4	-1.8″	-1.2″
Changeup	Offspeed	20%	86.9	+17.4″	+0.7″
Fastball	Hard	18%	94.2	+9.8″	+13.1″
Curveball	Breaking	5%	81.0	-11.3″	-12.8″

The lineup he faces

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Nathan Lukes14%

2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.17%

3Kazuma Okamoto24%

4George Springer17%

5Josh Smith27%

6Andrés Giménez18%

7Brandon Valenzuela27%

8Myles Straw14%

9Ernie Clement11%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+8 pts

Sinker-6 pts

Fastball+2 pts

Changeup-5 pts

Curveball+0 pts

Sweeper+0 pts

Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	27%	35%	27.3%	21.0%	21.0%
Sinker	30%	24%	1.9%	14.3%	16.9%
Fastball	18%	20%	11.1%	9.9%	18.0%
Changeup	20%	15%	9.1%	9.4%	18.6%
Curveball	5%	6%	11.1%	10.0%	20.1%
Sweeper	0%	0%	100.0%	100.0%	19.3%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts3BTB expected 3.9 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line0 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 20	CHC	3.9	3.5	53.8%	50.3%	3