Tarik Skubal

LAD · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 9:15 PM CT

Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF

8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings

Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%30.3%

BB%5.2%

Whiff%15.8%

Velo92.6

BTB Stuff111

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball39%12496.814.1%

Changeup25%9787.926.5%

Sinker16%10696.77.5%

Slider14%11689.910.1%

Curveball6%8980.517.6%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	86	12%	13%	24%	.485
Sep 14	90	38%	16%	13%	.142
Sep 8	94	19%	11%	26%	.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameLAD @ SF →Oracle Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	39%	96.8	+2.8″	+16.8″
Changeup	Offspeed	25%	87.9	+14.0″	+4.7″
Sinker	Hard	16%	96.6	+12.7″	+12.4″
Slider	Breaking	14%	89.9	-3.4″	+4.4″
Curveball	Breaking	6%	80.6	-8.5″	-4.8″

The lineup he faces

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Jonah Cox34%

2Brett Harris24%

3Victor Bericoto23%

4Bo Davidson21%

5Andrew Knizner20%

6Marcelo Mayer25%

7Shay Whitcomb22%

8Scott Bandura29%

9Christian Koss23%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-1 pts

Changeup+11 pts

Sinker-6 pts

Slider-6 pts

Curveball+1 pts

Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	39%	38%	26.4%	24.3%	18.6%
Changeup	25%	36%	41.1%	26.1%	18.3%
Sinker	16%	11%	13.8%	16.7%	17.7%
Slider	14%	8%	17.4%	22.9%	21.6%
Curveball	6%	7%	45.0%	33.3%	21.2%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts3BTB expected 7.1 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	SF	8.6	7.5	62.6%	45.9%	not settled
Sep 19	SF	7.1	7.5	41.3%	49.0%	3