MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 7Corbin Carroll
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.296wOBA vs RHP.316xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .345 vs league .360 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .344 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .345 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .244 vs league .258 (about even).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .312 vs league .327 (pitcher's edge).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .311 vs league .325 (about even).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .295 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Corbin Carroll's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Corbin Carroll's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 85.7 mph at 7°Out: 80.5 mph at -12°Out: 82.2 mph at 28°Triple: 95.6 mph at -3°Out: 94.9 mph at 22°Out: 102.8 mph at -5°Out: 105.7 mph at 21°Out: 100.1 mph at -11°Double: 102.2 mph at 22°Out: 59.9 mph at 57°Out: 105.6 mph at -16°Single: 102.3 mph at -1°Out: 95.1 mph at 33°Out: 80.2 mph at -22°Home run: 110.7 mph at 25°Out: 79.4 mph at 37°Double: 93.4 mph at 14°Out: 86.0 mph at 71°Out: 73.9 mph at 62°Out: 90.1 mph at -14°Single: 109.0 mph at 11°Out: 101.7 mph at 4°Single: 68.2 mph at 42°Out: 78.6 mph at -46°Out: 102.7 mph at -8°Home run: 108.4 mph at 28°Out: 95.3 mph at -7°Single: 104.8 mph at 11°Out: 99.4 mph at 42°Out: 53.5 mph at -70°Out: 87.4 mph at -25°Home run: 104.0 mph at 31°Out: 89.1 mph at 52°Single: 106.3 mph at 14°Double: 99.6 mph at 33°Out: 104.7 mph at 40°Out: 104.8 mph at 31°Out: 97.7 mph at -8°Double: 105.1 mph at 4°Out: 103.4 mph at -22°
60% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.3%57.5%+0.8
2+ total bases35.8%34.5%+1.3
Home run15.8%13.9%+2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Corbin Carroll against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.345.36025.2%18.5%27About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.344.35821.4%15.3%62About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.345.35922.1%15.2%65About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.244.25823.4%27.8%25About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.312.32723.1%25.3%22About league average vs these
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.311.32522.5%24.5%10About league average vs these
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.295.30925.3%27.6%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Corbin Carroll · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.231.312.385.320.24418.8%12.5%15.2%90.2105.60.0%50.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1548.233.271.465.313.33429.2%6.2%26.7%93.5110.710.0%56.7%23.3%
Last 30 G2786.200.256.373.271.31125.6%8.1%23.9%92.1110.78.9%42.9%23.2%
90 days71229.186.271.377.290.31923.1%10.5%23.5%92.1112.09.3%47.3%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 150 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 13%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 19%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.333.500.667.488.7820.0%25.0%0.0%103.6105.766.7%100.0%66.7%
Last 15 G913.333.385.750.469.57715.4%7.7%15.0%94.5105.730.0%70.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1839.250.308.500.367.41328.2%7.7%27.3%95.0108.820.0%64.0%44.0%
90 days5296.225.354.450.362.35525.0%13.5%23.1%91.8108.810.7%51.8%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 56 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 25%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.250.350.438.355.35815.0%15.0%13.5%93.3105.715.4%61.5%30.8%
Last 15 G1561.255.295.527.347.38826.2%6.6%24.8%93.8110.715.0%60.0%30.0%
Last 30 G30125.216.272.414.302.34326.4%8.0%24.7%93.0110.712.3%49.4%29.6%
90 days75325.197.295.398.312.33023.7%11.4%23.4%92.0112.09.7%48.5%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 206 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 17%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 16%
Corbin Carroll · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating70Above average
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.311 / .335running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball90.985.77.388Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.880.5-12.080Out
Sep 23RHPFastball91.982.228.085Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.895.6-3.335Triple
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.594.922.243Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.6102.8-5.402Out
Sep 22LHPSinker89.9105.7211.271Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.4100.1-11.277Out
Sep 22LHPCutter87.3102.222.758Double
Sep 20RHPCurveball80.359.957.008Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup87.2105.6-16.205Double play
Sep 20RHPSweeper84.0102.3-1.428Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411011
Sep 23413000
Sep 22412000
Sep 20411010
Sep 19400012
Sep 18426100
Sep 16400002
Sep 15511011
Sep 14525101
Sep 13411002

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
Corbin Carroll bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Corbin Carroll with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.0%41.0%
Whiff%21.3%21.3%
Contact%78.7%78.7%
Chase%38.4%39.6%
wOBA.236.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.9%19.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.330
K%23.6%
BB%11.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%6.5%
Hard-hit%31.0%
Avg EV91.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

226 PA
wOBA.296
xwOBA vs this mix.316against pitches like his
RV/100-0.73
Hard-hit%31.0%
K%23.2%
BB%11.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Corbin Carroll: every projection we've made →