Hitter · SD · batting 1Fernando Tatis Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
1+ hit-0.2 pts matchup
2+ total bases+0.0 pts matchup
Home run+0.7 pts matchup
55% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 69.1% | 69.3% | -0.2 |
| 2+ total bases | 44.9% | 44.9% | +0.0 |
| Home run | 20.5% | 19.8% | +0.7 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.1
Park-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park+0.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.1
Park+0.8
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightFernando Tatis Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 20 | .389 | .450 | .778 | .512 | .491 | 25.0% | 5.0% | 27.8% | 92.9 | 114.3 | 15.4% | 53.8% | 53.8% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 58 | .308 | .379 | .615 | .439 | .405 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 23.6% | 93.2 | 114.3 | 13.2% | 50.0% | 31.6% |
| Last 30 G | 29 | 103 | .299 | .340 | .577 | .408 | .404 | 23.3% | 3.9% | 21.8% | 94.4 | 115.1 | 16.4% | 58.9% | 39.7% |
| 90 days | 75 | 261 | .291 | .352 | .536 | .399 | .399 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 21.5% | 94.1 | 115.7 | 13.2% | 54.5% | 34.9% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 189 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 8%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 2 | 2 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .450 | .267 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 95.7 | 101.7 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Last 15 G | 8 | 13 | .556 | .692 | .889 | .646 | .516 | 7.7% | 30.8% | 11.1% | 95.0 | 108.3 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 12.5% |
| Last 30 G | 18 | 34 | .345 | .441 | .655 | .465 | .442 | 8.8% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 87.6 | 108.6 | 11.5% | 50.0% | 30.8% |
| 90 days | 41 | 92 | .299 | .413 | .662 | .452 | .448 | 12.0% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 91.8 | 113.2 | 15.2% | 54.5% | 30.3% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 18%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 5%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 22 | .400 | .455 | .750 | .507 | .471 | 22.7% | 4.5% | 26.3% | 93.3 | 114.3 | 13.3% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 71 | .344 | .437 | .656 | .477 | .426 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 21.8% | 93.5 | 114.3 | 13.0% | 50.0% | 28.3% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 137 | .310 | .365 | .595 | .422 | .413 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 20.3% | 92.6 | 115.1 | 15.2% | 56.6% | 37.4% |
| 90 days | 78 | 353 | .293 | .368 | .567 | .413 | .412 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 20.6% | 93.5 | 115.7 | 13.7% | 54.5% | 33.7% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 255 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 19%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
xwOBA99.412
Avg EV9893.5
Max EV97115.7
Barrel%9413.7%
Hard-hit%9854.5%
Sweet-spot%3933.7%
K%7717.0%
BB%629.3%
Whiff%6020.6%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.414 / .419results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases9/12
Home run5/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sinker | 95.5 | 102.3 | 1 | .456 | Single |
| Sep 24 | LHP | Cutter | 93.7 | 101.7 | 0 | .472 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Slider | 84.3 | 62.7 | -55 | .302 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Cutter | 90.7 | 114.3 | 9 | .824 | Double |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Fastball | 94.2 | 89.6 | -23 | .062 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 96.2 | 97.9 | 9 | .590 | Single |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Sweeper | 86.5 | 98.4 | 25 | .578 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Sweeper | 84.0 | 98.7 | 11 | .855 | Single |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Cutter | 90.3 | 65.7 | 20 | .553 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sinker | 97.7 | 94.0 | -25 | .082 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Slider | 87.6 | 111.1 | 31 | 2.013 | Home run |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sweeper | 82.2 | 75.6 | 57 | .063 | Out |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 23 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 19 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sep 17 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 14 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Fernando Tatis Jr.: every projection we've made →