← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 1Fernando Tatis Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · ARITBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr.'s last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 102.3 mph at 1°Single: 101.7 mph at 0°Single: 62.7 mph at -55°Double: 114.3 mph at 9°Out: 89.6 mph at -23°Single: 97.9 mph at 9°Out: 98.4 mph at 25°Single: 98.7 mph at 11°Out: 65.7 mph at 20°Out: 94.0 mph at -25°Home run: 111.1 mph at 31°Out: 75.6 mph at 57°Home run: 107.4 mph at 30°Out: 87.2 mph at -40°Out: 92.9 mph at 34°Single: 98.3 mph at 14°Out: 109.7 mph at 5°Double: 107.9 mph at 21°Out: 74.5 mph at -32°Out: 68.3 mph at -28°Out: 75.8 mph at -15°Out: 79.9 mph at 35°Out: 88.9 mph at -29°Out: 91.2 mph at -34°Out: 99.7 mph at 51°Out: 91.4 mph at -3°Home run: 106.5 mph at 29°Out: 96.5 mph at 38°Home run: 111.1 mph at 35°Out: 86.0 mph at 3°Out: 94.8 mph at 32°Single: 103.2 mph at -18°Single: 111.1 mph at 5°Single: 104.7 mph at -5°Single: 68.2 mph at -74°Out: 72.8 mph at -27°Home run: 112.0 mph at 27°Triple: 97.9 mph at -21°Out: 108.6 mph at -13°Single: 108.3 mph at -10°
55% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.1%69.3%-0.2
2+ total bases44.9%44.9%+0.0
Home run20.5%19.8%+0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Fernando Tatis Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.389.450.778.512.49125.0%5.0%27.8%92.9114.315.4%53.8%53.8%
Last 15 G1558.308.379.615.439.40524.1%6.9%23.6%93.2114.313.2%50.0%31.6%
Last 30 G29103.299.340.577.408.40423.3%3.9%21.8%94.4115.116.4%58.9%39.7%
90 days75261.291.352.536.399.39918.8%6.9%21.5%94.1115.713.2%54.5%34.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 189 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.500.500.500.450.2670.0%0.0%0.0%95.7101.70.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G813.556.692.889.646.5167.7%30.8%11.1%95.0108.312.5%50.0%12.5%
Last 30 G1834.345.441.655.465.4428.8%14.7%15.1%87.6108.611.5%50.0%30.8%
90 days4192.299.413.662.452.44812.0%16.3%17.8%91.8113.215.2%54.5%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 18%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.400.455.750.507.47122.7%4.5%26.3%93.3114.313.3%53.3%46.7%
Last 15 G1571.344.437.656.477.42621.1%11.3%21.8%93.5114.313.0%50.0%28.3%
Last 30 G30137.310.365.595.422.41319.7%6.6%20.3%92.6115.115.2%56.6%37.4%
90 days78353.293.368.567.413.41217.0%9.3%20.6%93.5115.713.7%54.5%33.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 255 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 19%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
Fernando Tatis Jr. · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.414 / .419results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases9/12
Home run5/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker95.5102.31.456Single
Sep 24LHPCutter93.7101.70.472Single
Sep 23RHPSlider84.362.7-55.302Single
Sep 23RHPCutter90.7114.39.824Double
Sep 23LHPFastball94.289.6-23.062Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.297.99.590Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper86.598.425.578Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.098.711.855Single
Sep 20RHPCutter90.365.720.553Out
Sep 20RHPSinker97.794.0-25.082Out
Sep 20RHPSlider87.6111.1312.013Home run
Sep 20RHPSweeper82.275.657.063Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24422011
Sep 23534001
Sep 22411002
Sep 20414100
Sep 19514101
Sep 18511012
Sep 17512011
Sep 16500001
Sep 15514101
Sep 14514101

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Fernando Tatis Jr.: every projection we've made →