MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SD · batting 6Gavin Sheets
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · ARITBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Gavin Sheets's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 77.5 mph at 53°Out: 106.5 mph at 3°Single: 67.8 mph at 23°Out: 94.4 mph at 25°Out: 70.7 mph at 78°Out: 78.8 mph at 36°Out: 86.2 mph at 45°Out: 99.5 mph at 1°Out: 75.4 mph at -27°Out: 89.4 mph at -27°Single: 77.8 mph at 21°Out: 63.6 mph at -31°Single: 77.7 mph at 14°Out: 100.2 mph at 40°Home run: 96.0 mph at 34°Out: 98.0 mph at -11°Single: 107.4 mph at 4°Out: 81.5 mph at -20°Out: 82.2 mph at 1°Out: 70.2 mph at 50°Out: 84.2 mph at -7°Out: 103.1 mph at 21°Out: 87.9 mph at 27°Home run: 103.7 mph at 24°Single: 44.4 mph at -56°Out: 83.4 mph at 70°Out: 65.8 mph at -19°Out: 90.5 mph at -5°Out: 66.5 mph at 75°Out: 103.2 mph at -5°Out: 105.1 mph at 24°Out: 93.6 mph at 5°Out: 106.9 mph at 6°Single: 96.1 mph at -29°Out: 27.6 mph at -34°Out: 86.7 mph at 36°Out: 85.7 mph at 57°Out: 100.9 mph at 44°Single: 101.2 mph at -26°Out: 74.4 mph at -47°
35% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.3%53.7%-0.4
2+ total bases30.7%30.9%-0.2
Home run9.2%8.8%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Gavin Sheets hits
Gavin Sheets · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .219 shrunk (raw .088 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 23 pitches seen.219xwOBA .421 shrunk (raw .558 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 21 pitches seen.421xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .346 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 13 pitches seen.284xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .038 on 3 PA) · league .342 · 17 pitches seen.281xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .236 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 27 pitches seen.326xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .187 on 4 PA) · league .321 · 20 pitches seen.288xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .169 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 27 pitches seen.252xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .270 on 12 PA) · league .351 · 39 pitches seen.310xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .309 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 24 pitches seen.296xwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .445 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 99 pitches seen.411xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .457 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.328xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .232 on 33 PA) · league .263 · 125 pitches seen.240xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .413 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 87 pitches seen.353
vs RHP · 550 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 22%6%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 20%13%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 19%9%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 13%15%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 17%10%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 28%10%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 24%17%Whiff 25% of 44 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 67% of 24 swings · league 49%67%
vs RHP · 550 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 62%70%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 66%85%Swings at 29% of 17 pitches · league 70%29%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 76%56%Swings at 70% of 20 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 65%56%Swings at 51% of 39 pitches · league 68%51%Swings at 42% of 24 pitches · league 60%42%Swings at 20% of 99 pitches · league 24%20%Swings at 43% of 28 pitches · league 34%43%Swings at 35% of 125 pitches · league 40%35%Swings at 28% of 87 pitches · league 32%28%
vs RHP · 550 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Gavin Sheets · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.091.231.091.177.2767.7%15.4%16.7%84.6106.50.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1540.206.325.382.318.30617.5%12.5%27.1%84.2107.47.4%29.6%25.9%
Last 30 G2868.185.324.296.288.28713.2%16.2%21.4%84.6107.44.3%25.5%17.0%
90 days46124.172.323.273.283.30512.9%16.1%18.5%84.1107.53.5%25.9%21.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 17%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 GNo plate appearances
Last 30 G613.154.154.154.138.18223.1%0.0%10.3%85.4105.110.0%50.0%20.0%
90 days1424.130.167.174.163.18629.2%4.2%19.3%84.9105.16.7%40.0%20.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 15 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 13%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.091.231.091.177.2767.7%15.4%16.7%84.6106.50.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1540.206.325.382.318.30617.5%12.5%27.1%84.2107.47.4%29.6%25.9%
Last 30 G3081.179.296.269.264.27014.8%13.6%19.5%84.7107.45.3%29.8%17.5%
90 days48148.164.297.254.264.28715.5%14.2%18.6%84.2107.54.0%28.0%21.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 100 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 16%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 11%
Gavin Sheets · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating30Below average
Last 100 pitches29steady
wOBA / xwOBA.266 / .297running 31 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Aug 29RHPChangeup79.477.553.063Out
Aug 29RHPSinker93.5106.53.507Out
Aug 29RHPSinker92.567.823.833Single
Aug 29RHPSinker92.394.425.214Out
Aug 26RHPFastball96.670.778.007Out
Aug 26RHPSinker99.178.836.031Out
Aug 26RHPCurveball87.386.245.006Out
Aug 24RHPCurveball85.299.51.460Double play
Aug 24RHPSinker99.775.4-27.035Out
Aug 22RHPFastball92.089.4-27.042Out
Aug 19RHPSinker91.477.821.860Single
Aug 17RHPCurveball81.963.6-31.044Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Aug 29411000
Aug 26300000
Aug 24200000
Aug 23200020
Aug 22200001
Aug 19111000
Aug 17411001
Aug 16314101
Aug 15100001
Aug 14511001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Gavin Sheets: every projection we've made →