MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 7Jake Cronenworth
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · ARITBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jake Cronenworth's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.9 mph at 65°Out: 88.6 mph at 22°Out: 88.5 mph at 18°Out: 83.6 mph at -18°Out: 81.5 mph at 82°Double: 92.2 mph at 18°Home run: 100.5 mph at 29°Home run: 99.1 mph at 45°Single: 100.4 mph at 2°Out: 95.7 mph at -14°Out: 59.8 mph at -8°Out: 75.4 mph at -6°Single: 95.7 mph at 1°Single: 90.4 mph at 11°Out: 99.7 mph at 5°Single: 65.3 mph at 37°Triple: 102.2 mph at 25°Out: 69.9 mph at 76°Out: 92.8 mph at -20°Single: 64.2 mph at 13°Out: 64.9 mph at -35°Single: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 87.0 mph at 39°Out: 90.7 mph at 47°Out: 91.6 mph at 4°Single: 101.3 mph at -8°Single: 97.8 mph at -14°Single: 87.8 mph at -8°Single: 103.6 mph at 0°Out: 95.3 mph at 32°Single: 31.4 mph at -3°Out: 91.2 mph at 65°Out: 75.6 mph at -2°Out: 82.7 mph at 12°Out: 30.6 mph at -1°Out: 78.8 mph at 37°Out: 79.6 mph at -31°Single: 107.6 mph at 14°Out: 64.2 mph at 61°Out: 76.6 mph at 38°
33% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.8%55.2%-0.4
2+ total bases26.0%26.2%-0.2
Home run6.5%6.1%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Cronenworth · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.267.312.733.428.21037.5%6.2%24.1%88.7100.511.1%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G1549.250.312.455.355.28226.5%6.1%20.0%84.3107.69.4%28.1%28.1%
Last 30 G2994.224.290.412.318.25427.7%7.4%20.1%84.8107.65.0%25.0%31.7%
90 days71228.242.305.362.309.26725.9%7.9%20.5%86.2108.94.0%30.2%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 149 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 23%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.4060.0%0.0%33.3%86.088.50.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G712.417.417.417.375.2660.0%0.0%5.3%84.8103.60.0%33.3%25.0%
Last 30 G1526.208.269.208.227.19915.4%7.7%6.8%82.9103.60.0%25.0%15.0%
90 days3872.277.338.354.320.24016.7%5.6%12.9%80.2103.60.0%20.8%26.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.235.278.647.381.23233.3%5.6%25.0%88.3100.59.1%36.4%36.4%
Last 15 G1561.286.333.446.359.27921.3%4.9%17.3%84.4107.66.8%29.5%27.3%
Last 30 G30120.220.286.367.298.24225.0%7.5%17.5%84.3107.63.8%25.0%27.5%
90 days74300.250.313.360.312.26123.7%7.3%18.6%84.6108.93.0%27.7%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 202 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
Jake Cronenworth · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating12Poor
Last 100 pitches77trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.306 / .265running 41 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPCurveball75.380.965.005Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.488.622.234Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.388.518.741Out
Sep 22LHPSlider88.883.6-18.072Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.681.582.008Out
Sep 20RHPFastball98.792.218.560Double
Sep 20RHPSlider87.0100.5291.134Home run
Sep 20RHPCurveball80.599.145.045Home run
Sep 19RHPChangeup90.0100.42.432Single
Sep 19RHPSinker97.395.7-14.181Out
Sep 19RHPCutter95.959.8-8.068Force out
Sep 18RHPFastball96.075.4-6.063Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24200002
Sep 23400001
Sep 22300001
Sep 204310201
Sep 19511011
Sep 18422000
Sep 17524000
Sep 16522002
Sep 15411000
Sep 14422011

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Cronenworth: every projection we've made →