MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 8James McCann
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.419wOBA vs RHP.364xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. James McCann: wOBA .335 vs league .316 (hitter's edge).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. James McCann: wOBA .374 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. James McCann: wOBA .373 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. James McCann: wOBA .276 vs league .257 (hitter's edge).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. James McCann: wOBA .306 vs league .287 (hitter's edge).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. James McCann: wOBA .291 vs league .272 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. James McCann: wOBA .312 vs league .292 (hitter's edge).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is James McCann's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

James McCann's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 95.9 mph at 41°Home run: 108.7 mph at 22°Out: 93.2 mph at -5°Out: 84.4 mph at 11°Single: 109.0 mph at 16°Out: 100.8 mph at 21°Out: 62.5 mph at 3°Out: 75.8 mph at -30°Out: 70.6 mph at -9°Out: 65.9 mph at 10°Out: 97.9 mph at 22°Out: 95.9 mph at 31°Single: 99.9 mph at 6°Home run: 104.5 mph at 29°Single: 97.1 mph at 12°Single: 93.4 mph at 11°Out: 91.2 mph at 51°Double: 102.5 mph at 20°Out: 104.1 mph at 36°Out: 102.1 mph at -4°Single: 107.0 mph at 9°Out: 69.5 mph at -48°Out: 82.0 mph at 45°Out: 55.1 mph at 60°Out: 93.8 mph at 58°Out: 100.1 mph at 18°Single: 69.3 mph at 26°Single: 27.8 mph at -5°Single: 108.3 mph at 10°Out: 97.0 mph at 36°Out: 100.6 mph at -3°Out: 73.8 mph at -4°Out: 80.1 mph at 32°Out: 73.4 mph at 69°Out: 108.7 mph at 15°Single: 64.6 mph at -8°Out: 77.0 mph at 44°Out: 79.4 mph at -33°Out: 98.6 mph at 61°Out: 88.5 mph at 23°
48% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.4%61.7%+1.7
2+ total bases38.3%36.4%+1.9
Home run15.1%13.4%+1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

James McCann against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.335.31626.8%25.4%12About league average vs these
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.374.35512.7%12.2%14About league average vs these
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.373.35320.0%19.4%9About league average vs these
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.276.25735.3%31.6%3Little history vs this shape
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.306.28734.7%31.6%18About league average vs these
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.291.27234.0%31.1%9About league average vs these
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.312.29232.1%29.3%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
James McCann · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.267.714.387.46720.0%0.0%21.7%93.2109.025.0%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G1439.297.308.486.337.37425.6%2.6%29.4%90.4109.010.7%57.1%60.7%
Last 30 G2367.359.373.672.452.38122.4%1.5%27.7%89.3109.012.0%48.0%52.0%
90 days2367.359.373.672.452.38122.4%1.5%27.7%89.3109.012.0%48.0%52.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 34%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.000.000.000.000.01850.0%0.0%50.0%73.275.80.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G714.091.286.091.214.27921.4%21.4%38.5%79.4104.112.5%25.0%0.0%
Last 30 G1328.292.393.333.337.28525.0%14.3%32.1%85.2104.35.9%29.4%29.4%
90 days1328.292.393.333.337.28525.0%14.3%32.1%85.2104.35.9%29.4%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 6%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.222.211.556.305.37326.3%0.0%30.3%90.4109.021.4%57.1%57.1%
Last 15 G1553.250.302.396.305.34924.5%7.5%31.9%88.0109.011.1%50.0%47.2%
Last 30 G2595.341.379.580.418.35223.2%5.3%29.1%88.3109.010.4%43.3%46.3%
90 days2595.341.379.580.418.35223.2%5.3%29.1%88.3109.010.4%43.3%46.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
James McCann · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating93Top tier
Last 100 pitches98steady
wOBA / xwOBA.420 / .375running 45 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider84.895.941.053Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.7108.7221.745Home run
Sep 24RHPSlider86.393.2-5.218Double play
Sep 24RHPSweeper82.684.411.435Out
Sep 24RHPSinker89.0109.016.725Single
Sep 13RHPFastball94.6100.821.492Out
Sep 13RHPSinker93.962.53.125Out
Sep 13LHPChangeup86.175.8-30.031Out
Sep 13LHPChangeup87.470.6-9.039Out
Sep 9RHPSinker92.665.910.172Out
Sep 6RHPSinker92.197.922.393Out
Sep 6RHPChangeup87.295.931.362Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24525100
Sep 13400000
Sep 9300002
Sep 6411001
Sep 2314102
Aug 29411003
Aug 28423001
Aug 26311000
Aug 23400011
Aug 19100010

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
James McCann bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
James McCann with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.5%42.4%
Whiff%25.1%22.2%
Contact%74.9%77.8%
Chase%43.7%39.8%
wOBA.239.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.6%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.357
K%23.5%
BB%6.1%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%31.4%
Avg EV89.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

67 PA
wOBA.419
xwOBA vs this mix.364against pitches like his
RV/1002.31
Hard-hit%33.2%
K%22.6%
BB%6.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.James McCann: every projection we've made →