MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 2Ketel Marte
Switch hitterTalent grade BContactHot
.301wOBA vs RHP.308xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .349 vs league .360 (about even).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .347 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .348 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .247 vs league .258 (about even).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .316 vs league .327 (about even).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .315 vs league .325 (about even).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .298 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ketel Marte's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ketel Marte's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 105.2 mph at 23°Out: 83.0 mph at 60°Out: 104.4 mph at -12°Out: 97.1 mph at -24°Single: 70.0 mph at -48°Out: 88.8 mph at 19°Single: 101.2 mph at -24°Out: 82.9 mph at -38°Out: 96.2 mph at -21°Out: 84.1 mph at 77°Out: 57.5 mph at -83°Single: 95.8 mph at 12°Out: 92.2 mph at -5°Single: 107.1 mph at 4°Out: 95.8 mph at 54°Out: 87.8 mph at -2°Out: 94.5 mph at -14°Out: 93.7 mph at 45°Out: 47.5 mph at -38°Out: 82.3 mph at 52°Single: 106.1 mph at 9°Out: 87.1 mph at -36°Double: 98.9 mph at 14°Double: 104.4 mph at 13°Out: 99.5 mph at -1°Out: 103.7 mph at 31°Out: 91.5 mph at 34°Out: 86.1 mph at 36°Out: 104.4 mph at -21°Out: 97.2 mph at 55°Out: 89.6 mph at 60°Out: 85.6 mph at 21°Double: 109.6 mph at -10°Out: 94.9 mph at -12°Out: 90.0 mph at 17°Single: 37.0 mph at 43°Out: 82.2 mph at 27°Out: 77.8 mph at 49°Out: 95.4 mph at 26°Out: 80.1 mph at 74°
43% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.2%66.6%+0.6
2+ total bases40.7%39.6%+1.2
Home run14.5%12.7%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Ketel Marte against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.349.36012.4%18.5%29About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.347.3589.8%15.3%54About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.348.3599.8%15.2%56About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.247.25822.8%27.8%19About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.316.32717.6%25.3%33About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.315.32517.2%24.5%17About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.298.30919.7%27.6%10About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ketel Marte · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.200.333.267.336.3825.6%16.7%12.9%92.0107.17.1%50.0%21.4%
Last 15 G1553.191.283.298.287.3419.4%11.3%9.3%91.0109.64.9%43.9%29.3%
Last 30 G29103.205.320.352.316.32511.7%13.6%12.0%89.1109.66.7%36.0%34.7%
90 days59218.208.298.365.300.31415.6%9.6%16.5%87.9111.47.0%36.7%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.667.667.667.600.1120.0%0.0%0.0%85.1101.20.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G718.375.389.438.362.2695.6%5.6%12.5%90.4111.36.2%37.5%25.0%
Last 30 G1529.400.448.560.443.3536.9%6.9%12.3%91.6111.38.3%41.7%25.0%
90 days2854.333.389.583.421.3639.3%7.4%20.4%91.3116.811.4%38.6%29.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 18%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.278.381.333.374.3434.8%14.3%11.1%90.8107.15.9%47.1%17.6%
Last 15 G1571.238.310.333.306.3238.5%9.9%10.3%90.8111.35.3%42.1%28.1%
Last 30 G30132.248.348.398.343.33110.6%12.1%12.1%89.7111.37.1%37.4%32.3%
90 days61272.233.316.408.323.32414.3%9.2%17.3%88.7116.87.9%37.1%33.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 202 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 19%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
Ketel Marte · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating53Average
Last 100 pitches48steady
wOBA / xwOBA.323 / .320results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball91.4105.2231.474Double
Sep 24RHPSlider83.683.060.008Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.2104.4-12.278Out
Sep 23RHPCutter88.097.1-24.100Out
Sep 23LHPFastball94.070.0-48.200Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball82.888.819.555Error
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.5101.2-24.126Single
Sep 22RHPSinker92.682.9-38.067Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.896.2-21.103Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball82.484.177.010Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper80.257.5-83.142Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup87.895.812.900Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412020
Sep 23411000
Sep 22511000
Sep 20422000
Sep 19400011
Sep 18400001
Sep 16511002
Sep 15624000
Sep 14512000
Sep 13511011

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
Ketel Marte bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Ketel Marte with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.7%41.0%
Whiff%18.5%21.3%
Contact%81.5%78.7%
Chase%38.7%39.6%
wOBA.247.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.2%19.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.342
K%14.7%
BB%9.6%
Whiff%8.4%
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%27.5%
Avg EV88.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

214 PA
wOBA.301
xwOBA vs this mix.308against pitches like his
RV/100-0.54
Hard-hit%25.9%
K%16.0%
BB%9.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ketel Marte: every projection we've made →