← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 3Manny Machado
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · ARITBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Manny Machado's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.2 mph at 55°Out: 86.3 mph at 35°Out: 80.6 mph at 49°Home run: 108.6 mph at 25°Out: 92.1 mph at 63°Out: 109.8 mph at -2°Out: 90.3 mph at 42°Out: 55.5 mph at -50°Out: 58.8 mph at -7°Out: 80.7 mph at 72°Out: 79.5 mph at 85°Out: 51.8 mph at 50°Single: 94.3 mph at 19°Out: 100.6 mph at 20°Single: 93.3 mph at -4°Out: 65.1 mph at -46°Out: 107.0 mph at 14°Out: 100.5 mph at 21°Out: 83.2 mph at -7°Out: 87.4 mph at 73°Out: 96.8 mph at -36°Out: 80.7 mph at 40°Single: 96.5 mph at 13°Out: 72.6 mph at -4°Out: 79.8 mph at -27°Out: 91.2 mph at 33°Single: 111.7 mph at 7°Out: 68.7 mph at -18°Out: 74.5 mph at -5°Out: 85.0 mph at 53°Out: 84.9 mph at 57°Home run: 94.1 mph at 29°Out: 82.5 mph at 73°Home run: 104.1 mph at 27°Out: 87.8 mph at 39°Out: 95.5 mph at 22°Out: 106.4 mph at -8°Out: 101.7 mph at 23°Out: 83.0 mph at 78°Out: 63.3 mph at -58°
30% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.0%63.4%-0.4
2+ total bases39.9%40.1%-0.2
Home run15.2%14.7%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Manny Machado · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.167.200.333.225.21025.0%5.0%22.0%83.3108.67.1%14.3%21.4%
Last 15 G1555.149.236.340.251.24821.8%10.9%21.2%84.1108.65.4%21.6%27.0%
Last 30 G28103.221.330.384.335.33316.5%14.6%19.2%86.4109.27.0%33.8%29.6%
90 days74257.257.350.459.364.35119.5%12.5%21.4%89.7112.09.8%43.1%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 174 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.21050.0%0.0%28.6%109.8109.80.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G913.167.231.167.192.26315.4%7.7%23.3%96.0111.710.0%50.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1631.222.290.333.277.31322.6%9.7%23.7%91.8111.79.5%47.6%33.3%
90 days3982.211.280.324.271.31723.2%9.8%27.5%90.7111.77.4%44.4%31.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 22%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.150.182.300.205.21027.3%4.5%22.9%85.1109.86.7%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1568.153.235.305.240.25120.6%10.3%21.6%86.6111.76.4%27.7%25.5%
Last 30 G30134.221.321.372.322.32917.9%13.4%20.2%87.6111.77.6%37.0%30.4%
90 days77339.246.333.427.342.34320.4%11.8%22.8%89.9112.09.2%43.4%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 228 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 11%
Manny Machado · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.344 / .364running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball96.994.255.015Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.086.335.032Out
Sep 23RHPSlider87.480.649.026Sac fly
Sep 23RHPSinker94.5108.6252.007Home run
Sep 23RHPCutter90.192.163.011Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.5109.8-2.419Double play
Sep 23RHPSinker95.590.342.004Out
Sep 22RHPSlider90.355.5-50.226Out
Sep 22RHPSinker93.558.8-7.044Force out
Sep 20RHPFastball97.480.772.000Out
Sep 20RHPSlider83.279.585.000Out
Sep 19RHPSlider87.951.850.015Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 23514100
Sep 22400011
Sep 20400002
Sep 19522001
Sep 18500012
Sep 17400000
Sep 16511001
Sep 15411010
Sep 14514100

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Manny Machado: every projection we've made →