MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 5Pavin Smith
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedHot
.319wOBA vs RHP.320xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .360 vs league .360 (about even).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .358 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .359 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .258 vs league .258 (about even).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .327 vs league .327 (about even).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .325 vs league .325 (about even).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .309 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Pavin Smith's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Pavin Smith's last 37 balls in playHit (11)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 101.1 mph at 22°Out: 104.6 mph at -1°Single: 72.2 mph at 43°Out: 96.2 mph at 9°Single: 104.3 mph at 10°Home run: 99.7 mph at 28°Out: 76.7 mph at 66°Single: 103.7 mph at 7°Home run: 109.7 mph at 25°Out: 85.7 mph at 4°Out: 98.6 mph at 41°Out: 105.7 mph at 1°Out: 89.2 mph at 32°Double: 93.9 mph at 0°Out: 87.6 mph at 37°Out: 103.8 mph at 2°Single: 101.9 mph at -9°Out: 72.9 mph at 42°Out: 92.0 mph at 38°Out: 85.6 mph at -1°Out: 97.0 mph at 23°Out: 94.8 mph at 3°Single: 95.1 mph at 18°Out: 107.4 mph at 10°Out: 64.7 mph at -57°Out: 106.1 mph at 10°Out: 78.5 mph at -5°Single: 96.4 mph at 7°Out: 92.0 mph at 45°Out: 93.7 mph at 35°Out: 58.6 mph at -51°Out: 87.3 mph at -14°Out: 73.9 mph at 77°Out: 78.6 mph at 49°Out: 101.6 mph at 40°Double: 82.4 mph at 29°Out: 82.4 mph at 54°
46% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.1%56.9%+1.1
2+ total bases34.1%32.8%+1.3
Home run12.3%10.8%+1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Pavin Smith against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.360.36016.8%18.5%8Little history vs this shape
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.358.35813.5%15.3%19About league average vs these
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.359.35913.6%15.2%11About league average vs these
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.258.25829.6%27.8%3Little history vs this shape
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.327.32725.5%25.3%6Little history vs this shape
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.325.32524.8%24.5%3Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.309.30928.1%27.6%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Pavin Smith · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.400.500.800.537.43225.0%16.7%24.0%93.5104.614.3%71.4%57.1%
Last 15 G1540.270.325.486.350.36225.0%7.5%22.8%94.2109.77.4%59.3%33.3%
Last 30 G1747.250.298.455.324.32521.3%6.4%22.2%91.4109.75.9%50.0%29.4%
90 days1747.250.298.455.324.32521.3%6.4%22.2%91.4109.75.9%50.0%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 18%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G44.000.000.000.000.11325.0%0.0%12.5%89.092.00.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 30 G44.000.000.000.000.11325.0%0.0%12.5%89.092.00.0%0.0%33.3%
90 days44.000.000.000.000.11325.0%0.0%12.5%89.092.00.0%0.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 3 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 0%Fly ball 67%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.400.500.800.537.43225.0%16.7%24.0%93.5104.614.3%71.4%57.1%
Last 15 G1544.244.295.439.318.34025.0%6.8%21.8%93.7109.76.7%53.3%33.3%
Last 30 G1751.229.275.417.299.30821.6%5.9%21.4%91.2109.75.4%45.9%29.7%
90 days1751.229.275.417.299.30821.6%5.9%21.4%91.2109.75.4%45.9%29.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 16%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 8%
FormHot
Contact rating42Below average
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.302 / .309results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball92.5101.122.675Double
Sep 24RHPFastball92.4104.6-1.440Force out
Sep 24RHPCurveball83.572.243.305Single
Sep 23RHPCutter88.096.29.584Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.0104.310.839Single
Sep 19RHPCutter89.599.728.939Home run
Sep 18RHPFastball97.876.766.005Out
Sep 16RHPCurveball78.1103.77.597Single
Sep 16RHPSinker94.4109.7251.998Home run
Sep 16LHPCurveball77.985.74.345Double play
Sep 16RHPFastball100.098.641.137Out
Sep 15RHPFastball95.7105.71.484Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24423010
Sep 23311001
Sep 20200011
Sep 19114100
Sep 18200001
Sep 16425100
Sep 15300001
Sep 14412001
Sep 12111000
Jul 8400001

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
Pavin Smith bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Pavin Smith with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.9%41.0%
Whiff%20.3%21.3%
Contact%79.7%78.7%
Chase%40.3%39.6%
wOBA.241.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.0%19.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.337
K%27.5%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%26.7%
Avg EV89.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

47 PA
wOBA.319
xwOBA vs this mix.320against pitches like his
RV/100-0.12
Hard-hit%31.9%
K%22.0%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Pavin Smith: every projection we've made →