MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 8Samad Taylor
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · ARITBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Samad Taylor's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 28.3 mph at -25°Out: 66.4 mph at -7°Out: 88.8 mph at -19°Out: 91.0 mph at 48°Single: 76.2 mph at -59°Double: 79.9 mph at -6°Single: 91.7 mph at 9°Out: 102.7 mph at 25°Home run: 104.2 mph at 36°Out: 82.5 mph at -35°Single: 97.3 mph at 18°Single: 47.6 mph at -83°Single: 86.6 mph at 4°Double: 88.3 mph at -5°Out: 91.6 mph at 29°Single: 102.5 mph at 6°Out: 90.7 mph at 11°Out: 81.4 mph at 42°Single: 77.2 mph at 23°Out: 96.7 mph at 43°Out: 31.8 mph at -41°Out: 86.8 mph at 0°Single: 71.4 mph at 27°Out: 86.2 mph at 55°Single: 36.1 mph at -4°Out: 86.3 mph at 56°Out: 90.5 mph at -22°Out: 83.3 mph at 71°Out: 100.0 mph at 20°Single: 90.7 mph at 11°Single: 34.1 mph at -55°Out: 85.8 mph at 35°Double: 96.2 mph at 1°Out: 53.6 mph at -70°Out: 98.3 mph at 38°Out: 47.9 mph at -78°Out: 77.0 mph at -47°Out: 94.2 mph at 32°Out: 71.1 mph at 12°Out: 25.3 mph at 65°
20% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.6%54.1%-0.4
2+ total bases26.9%27.2%-0.3
Home run8.6%8.3%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Samad Taylor · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.364.429.727.461.38228.6%14.3%42.3%79.8104.225.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1136.400.472.600.457.36216.7%13.9%30.6%83.7104.28.0%20.0%32.0%
Last 30 G2263.308.403.423.372.33825.4%14.3%28.3%82.3104.25.3%18.4%34.2%
90 days2263.308.403.423.372.33825.4%14.3%28.3%82.3104.25.3%18.4%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 24%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.00050.0%0.0%0.0%91.091.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G915.200.200.200.180.12633.3%0.0%23.1%71.198.30.0%30.0%10.0%
Last 30 G1734.281.324.406.321.22826.5%2.9%16.9%71.598.34.3%21.7%34.8%
90 days1734.281.324.406.321.22826.5%2.9%16.9%71.598.34.3%21.7%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 22%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.308.375.615.403.33431.2%12.5%39.3%81.0104.222.2%22.2%22.2%
Last 15 G1551.333.392.467.375.29321.6%9.8%28.4%80.1104.25.7%22.9%25.7%
Last 30 G2897.298.375.417.354.29925.8%10.3%24.2%78.2104.24.9%19.7%34.4%
90 days2897.298.375.417.354.29925.8%10.3%24.2%78.2104.24.9%19.7%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 23%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 8%
Samad Taylor · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating26Below average
Last 100 pitches51trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.353 / .291running 62 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker95.528.3-25.304Out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.166.4-7.068Force out
Sep 23RHPSinker96.688.8-19.107Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.091.048.000Out
Sep 20RHPSinker98.676.2-59.284Single
Sep 20RHPSlider86.379.9-6.122Double
Sep 20RHPSinker97.291.79.580Single
Sep 19RHPSinker97.4102.7251.331Sac fly
Sep 19RHPFastball96.7104.2361.151Home run
Sep 18RHPSinker94.282.5-35.041Out
Sep 18LHPSlider89.197.318.477Single
Sep 18RHPSinker93.147.6-83.156Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400003
Sep 23400011
Sep 22100000
Sep 20334000
Sep 19414111
Sep 18422010
Sep 17523011
Sep 16422000
Sep 15200000
Sep 13311000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Samad Taylor: every projection we've made →