MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 9Tim Tawa
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.334wOBA vs RHP.326xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .318 vs league .316 (about even).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .358 vs league .355 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .356 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .260 vs league .257 (about even).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .290 vs league .287 (about even).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .274 vs league .272 (about even).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .295 vs league .292 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tim Tawa's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tim Tawa's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.6 mph at 28°Out: 95.9 mph at -8°Out: 102.3 mph at 42°Out: 107.2 mph at -24°Home run: 105.9 mph at 23°Double: 110.9 mph at 20°Out: 85.3 mph at 2°Out: 84.4 mph at 38°Out: 89.3 mph at 85°Out: 72.7 mph at 59°Out: 92.0 mph at -22°Out: 29.6 mph at -7°Out: 88.5 mph at -53°Out: 95.4 mph at 22°Out: 96.5 mph at 37°Out: 83.6 mph at 69°Out: 98.1 mph at 28°Out: 91.3 mph at 19°Out: 87.2 mph at 26°Out: 31.5 mph at 0°Out: 71.6 mph at 14°Out: 94.6 mph at 19°Out: 94.8 mph at 26°Double: 62.1 mph at 24°Triple: 103.8 mph at 30°Out: 101.4 mph at -1°Out: 98.0 mph at 10°Out: 91.3 mph at 20°Out: 86.5 mph at -14°Out: 96.4 mph at -12°Single: 80.2 mph at 21°Out: 91.0 mph at 3°Out: 38.3 mph at -6°Single: 98.3 mph at -5°Home run: 100.9 mph at 25°Single: 75.5 mph at 24°Single: 103.4 mph at 8°Single: 83.5 mph at 10°Out: 78.2 mph at 38°Single: 78.1 mph at 0°
38% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.1%56.9%+1.2
2+ total bases33.5%32.2%+1.3
Home run13.2%11.9%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Tim Tawa against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.318.31625.9%25.4%28About league average vs these
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.358.35512.4%12.2%63About league average vs these
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.356.35319.5%19.4%48About league average vs these
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.260.25736.6%31.6%10About league average vs these
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.290.28737.1%31.6%29About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.274.27236.4%31.1%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.295.29234.6%29.3%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tim Tawa · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.000.000.000.060.14237.5%0.0%31.2%84.3107.20.0%30.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1544.179.233.308.258.30722.7%6.8%26.2%84.5107.29.7%35.5%38.7%
Last 30 G3084.173.241.333.263.31927.4%8.3%28.2%87.8107.814.8%40.7%46.3%
90 days64198.242.290.438.336.33723.7%6.6%26.3%88.0108.212.3%47.1%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 138 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 19%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.667.7502.000.988.9770.0%25.0%20.0%102.9110.966.7%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G1014.308.357.692.436.45928.6%7.1%34.6%93.9110.922.2%44.4%77.8%
Last 30 G1834.333.412.533.423.39426.5%11.8%29.7%94.3110.910.0%50.0%60.0%
90 days3464.271.312.390.313.30829.7%6.2%28.2%94.4110.97.5%50.0%47.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 35%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.118.158.353.255.31830.0%5.0%29.7%88.6110.915.4%38.5%23.1%
Last 15 G1558.212.263.404.302.34424.1%6.9%28.2%86.6110.912.5%37.5%47.5%
Last 30 G30118.219.291.390.309.34027.1%9.3%28.6%89.6110.913.5%43.2%50.0%
90 days66262.249.296.426.330.33025.2%6.5%26.8%89.4110.911.2%47.8%39.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 11%
Tim Tawa · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating64Average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.315 / .330results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball92.987.628.076Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper79.695.9-8.170Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.6102.342.347Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.0107.2-24.103Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.9105.9231.588Home run
Sep 22LHPFastball90.7110.9201.491Double
Sep 22RHPFastball93.085.32.284Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.084.438.014Sac fly
Sep 20RHPFastball93.389.385.000Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.572.759.025Out
Sep 20LHPSinker88.992.0-22.129Double play
Sep 19RHPFastball97.329.6-7–Sac bunt
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24500002
Sep 23314101
Sep 22412010
Sep 20400001
Sep 19400002
Sep 18300002
Sep 16400001
Sep 14400010
Sep 13412000
Sep 12413010

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
Tim Tawa bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Tim Tawa with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.9%42.4%
Whiff%23.8%22.2%
Contact%76.2%77.8%
Chase%37.2%39.8%
wOBA.237.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.3%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.315
K%25.4%
BB%7.0%
Whiff%12.7%
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%31.5%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

198 PA
wOBA.334
xwOBA vs this mix.326against pitches like his
RV/1000.22
Hard-hit%32.1%
K%23.8%
BB%6.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tim Tawa: every projection we've made →