50% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 64.8% | 65.2% | -0.4 |
| 2+ total bases | 38.6% | 39.0% | -0.4 |
| Home run | 11.5% | 11.1% | +0.4 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.3
Park-0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.1
Park+0.5
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightTy France · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 19 | .211 | .211 | .263 | .208 | .207 | 26.3% | 0.0% | 34.6% | 85.9 | 104.6 | 0.0% | 42.9% | 28.6% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 53 | .300 | .321 | .460 | .335 | .309 | 20.8% | 3.8% | 29.2% | 89.0 | 106.3 | 10.0% | 45.0% | 47.5% |
| Last 30 G | 28 | 96 | .310 | .375 | .464 | .374 | .330 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 27.6% | 89.0 | 106.5 | 7.4% | 44.1% | 47.1% |
| 90 days | 68 | 224 | .335 | .393 | .528 | .409 | .333 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 22.4% | 91.6 | 108.7 | 8.0% | 48.1% | 44.4% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 9%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 2 | 2 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .350 | .385 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% | 91.5 | 91.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Last 15 G | 8 | 11 | .333 | .455 | .333 | .373 | .368 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 20.8% | 97.2 | 106.2 | 0.0% | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Last 30 G | 17 | 34 | .308 | .441 | .577 | .431 | .364 | 20.6% | 17.6% | 25.9% | 94.1 | 107.4 | 5.0% | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| 90 days | 40 | 83 | .279 | .386 | .456 | .368 | .348 | 24.1% | 9.6% | 26.6% | 93.9 | 107.4 | 4.0% | 48.0% | 42.0% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 24%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 4%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 21 | .200 | .238 | .250 | .221 | .224 | 23.8% | 4.8% | 33.3% | 86.3 | 104.6 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 26.7% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 64 | .305 | .344 | .441 | .341 | .319 | 20.3% | 4.7% | 28.0% | 90.2 | 106.3 | 8.5% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 130 | .309 | .392 | .491 | .389 | .339 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 27.1% | 90.2 | 107.4 | 6.8% | 44.3% | 47.7% |
| 90 days | 72 | 307 | .321 | .391 | .509 | .398 | .337 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 23.6% | 92.1 | 108.7 | 7.1% | 48.1% | 43.9% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 212 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
xwOBA75.337
Avg EV9392.1
Max EV39108.7
Barrel%557.1%
Hard-hit%8948.1%
Sweet-spot%9643.9%
K%6719.2%
BB%438.1%
Whiff%4323.6%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating87Excellent
Last 100 pitches53trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.397 / .360running 36 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run1/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Slider | 91.4 | 76.1 | 59 | .035 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Slider | 90.9 | 99.5 | 36 | .651 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Slider | 87.8 | 54.8 | -45 | .123 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 96.4 | 104.6 | -3 | .335 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Splitter | 91.1 | 86.1 | 24 | .227 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Curveball | 80.9 | 91.5 | -27 | .072 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 96.5 | 49.7 | 55 | .010 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Changeup | 91.8 | 95.0 | -4 | .224 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sinker | 95.7 | 93.9 | 20 | .342 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Fastball | 98.3 | 96.9 | -7 | .176 | Out |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Fastball | 97.8 | 70.5 | -14 | .032 | Out |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Slider | 89.8 | 97.0 | 16 | .679 | Single |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 19 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 17 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 14 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ty France: every projection we've made →