Hitter · SD · batting 6Xander Bogaerts
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
1+ hit-0.5 pts matchup
2+ total bases-0.4 pts matchup
Home run+0.3 pts matchup
50% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 59.6% | 60.0% | -0.5 |
| 2+ total bases | 31.9% | 32.2% | -0.4 |
| Home run | 8.4% | 8.2% | +0.3 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park-0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.1
Park+0.4
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightXander Bogaerts · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 15 | .167 | .333 | .167 | .260 | .282 | 13.3% | 20.0% | 17.4% | 90.2 | 104.2 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 10.0% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 49 | .268 | .388 | .463 | .382 | .312 | 22.4% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 91.5 | 112.0 | 3.4% | 48.3% | 17.2% |
| Last 30 G | 28 | 84 | .222 | .333 | .361 | .317 | .304 | 21.4% | 14.3% | 22.6% | 93.5 | 112.0 | 3.8% | 50.9% | 20.8% |
| 90 days | 70 | 213 | .211 | .319 | .344 | .302 | .319 | 19.7% | 13.6% | 21.6% | 90.7 | 112.0 | 7.2% | 44.6% | 28.8% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 139 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 3 | 4 | .500 | .500 | .750 | .537 | .360 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 93.4 | 106.0 | 0.0% | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Last 15 G | 9 | 14 | .385 | .429 | .462 | .396 | .418 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 21.1% | 94.7 | 107.9 | 0.0% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| Last 30 G | 17 | 36 | .312 | .389 | .344 | .339 | .342 | 13.9% | 11.1% | 21.4% | 91.2 | 107.9 | 0.0% | 40.7% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 41 | 86 | .257 | .360 | .311 | .313 | .346 | 12.8% | 14.0% | 21.6% | 91.8 | 111.0 | 0.0% | 50.8% | 27.0% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 21%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 6%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 19 | .250 | .368 | .312 | .318 | .299 | 15.8% | 15.8% | 21.9% | 90.9 | 106.0 | 0.0% | 46.2% | 15.4% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 63 | .296 | .397 | .463 | .385 | .336 | 19.0% | 14.3% | 18.0% | 92.4 | 112.0 | 2.4% | 51.2% | 24.4% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 120 | .250 | .350 | .356 | .324 | .315 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 22.3% | 92.7 | 112.0 | 2.5% | 47.5% | 25.0% |
| 90 days | 75 | 299 | .224 | .331 | .335 | .305 | .327 | 17.7% | 13.7% | 21.6% | 91.0 | 112.0 | 5.0% | 46.5% | 28.2% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 202 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 17%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 5%
xwOBA65.327
Avg EV8491.0
Max EV80112.0
Barrel%365.0%
Hard-hit%8346.5%
Sweet-spot%728.2%
K%7417.7%
BB%9413.7%
Whiff%5521.6%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating77Above average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.310 / .344running 33 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sinker | 95.5 | 91.2 | -34 | .050 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Curveball | 81.5 | 77.9 | 50 | .055 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 97.0 | 89.8 | -37 | .047 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Splitter | 92.1 | 104.2 | -8 | .324 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 96.6 | 99.4 | 7 | .577 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Sinker | 95.3 | 106.0 | -12 | .284 | Force out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 100.1 | 101.7 | -3 | .394 | Single |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sweeper | 83.9 | 73.0 | -21 | .041 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Slider | 84.6 | 83.1 | 72 | .003 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sinker | 99.1 | 99.3 | 8 | .580 | Single |
| Sep 18 | RHP | Sinker | 95.8 | 81.9 | -16 | .071 | Out |
| Sep 18 | LHP | Sweeper | 85.1 | 76.7 | 21 | .895 | Single |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sep 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Xander Bogaerts: every projection we've made →