MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 7Cam Smith
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.295wOBA vs RHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .261 vs league .269 (about even).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .347 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .244 vs league .252 (about even).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .317 vs league .326 (about even).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .340 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cam Smith's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Cam Smith's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 94.2 mph at 9°Out: 83.9 mph at 48°Out: 62.2 mph at -53°Out: 90.9 mph at 69°Out: 63.7 mph at -4°Double: 110.9 mph at 14°Out: 92.8 mph at 4°Out: 105.1 mph at 33°Out: 40.2 mph at -64°Out: 96.2 mph at 29°Out: 45.2 mph at 21°Out: 81.8 mph at 30°Out: 96.6 mph at 18°Out: 90.2 mph at 61°Out: 84.1 mph at 78°Out: 61.5 mph at 7°Out: 79.3 mph at 14°Out: 72.0 mph at -15°Out: 83.6 mph at 55°Out: 87.6 mph at 55°Out: 52.7 mph at -63°Out: 76.1 mph at 52°Out: 71.4 mph at 72°Single: 109.4 mph at -1°Out: 101.6 mph at -28°Single: 95.4 mph at 14°Home run: 105.7 mph at 31°Out: 90.1 mph at 52°Home run: 105.8 mph at 28°Single: 72.0 mph at 10°Out: 105.3 mph at -39°Out: 34.1 mph at -33°Home run: 104.3 mph at 30°Single: 82.9 mph at 23°Triple: 106.6 mph at 20°Out: 70.6 mph at 77°Out: 82.9 mph at 66°Out: 102.1 mph at 0°Single: 99.4 mph at -7°Out: 80.7 mph at -33°
35% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.5%55.5%+1.9
2+ total bases35.7%32.9%+2.8
Home run14.5%12.2%+2.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+2.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
+3.1
Home run
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+2.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Cam Smith against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.261.26936.7%32.7%17About league average vs these
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.347.35518.5%17.0%53About league average vs these
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.244.25232.3%31.3%10About league average vs these
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.317.32624.5%22.9%31About league average vs these
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.340.34911.8%11.1%51About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Cam Smith · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.143.200.214.250.22840.0%6.7%31.0%81.1110.912.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1440.167.250.361.291.29235.0%7.5%21.2%83.3110.913.6%36.4%36.4%
Last 30 G2874.162.230.338.261.25531.1%6.8%23.4%84.5113.48.9%33.3%33.3%
90 days61178.205.247.404.293.29126.4%4.5%24.9%87.3113.99.3%42.4%30.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 118 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.000.000.000.38140.0%0.0%55.6%78.7105.133.3%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G916.125.125.312.181.30331.2%0.0%41.9%83.0105.818.2%27.3%36.4%
Last 30 G1828.111.107.296.161.29132.1%0.0%31.2%84.9105.810.5%36.8%52.6%
90 days3767.164.224.459.284.30725.4%6.0%25.2%88.5114.013.3%42.2%28.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 22%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.105.150.158.188.26640.0%5.0%36.8%80.5110.918.2%27.3%36.4%
Last 15 G1556.154.214.346.260.29533.9%5.4%27.0%83.2110.915.2%33.3%36.4%
Last 30 G30102.147.196.326.233.26531.4%4.9%25.7%84.6113.49.4%34.4%39.1%
90 days67245.194.241.419.291.29526.1%4.9%25.0%87.6114.010.4%42.3%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 163 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 20%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 15%
Cam Smith · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating35Below average
Last 100 pitches24trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.286 / .302running 16 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider87.294.29.579Single
Sep 24RHPSlider85.583.948.003Out
Sep 23RHPSinker98.762.2-53.290Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup91.090.969.003Out
Sep 22RHPSlider85.063.7-4.080Error
Sep 22RHPFastball96.3110.914.809Double
Sep 22RHPSinker94.692.84.443Double play
Sep 22LHPSinker98.4105.1331.640Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball82.240.2-64.263Out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.096.229.398Out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.745.221.122Out
Sep 17LHPChangeup86.281.830.120Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411002
Sep 23300010
Sep 22512001
Sep 20400003
Sep 19400002
Sep 17400002
Sep 16200000
Sep 15300000
Sep 13400001
Sep 12400002

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Cam Smith bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Cam Smith with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.7%42.4%
Whiff%23.1%22.2%
Contact%76.9%77.8%
Chase%40.0%39.8%
wOBA.231.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.8%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.295
K%26.0%
BB%5.9%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%27.3%
Avg EV87.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

178 PA
wOBA.295
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/100-0.55
Hard-hit%27.8%
K%26.0%
BB%5.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cam Smith: every projection we've made →