MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 9Christian Vázquez
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.263wOBA vs RHP.225xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Christian Vázquez: wOBA .258 vs league .269 (about even).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Christian Vázquez: wOBA .344 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Christian Vázquez: wOBA .241 vs league .252 (about even).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Christian Vázquez: wOBA .315 vs league .326 (about even).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Christian Vázquez: wOBA .338 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christian Vázquez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Christian Vázquez's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.9 mph at 63°Out: 98.0 mph at -2°Single: 72.1 mph at 28°Out: 89.3 mph at 78°Out: 81.7 mph at 45°Out: 58.2 mph at -10°Out: 88.6 mph at -19°Out: 88.3 mph at 0°Out: 73.8 mph at 31°Single: 98.4 mph at -3°Out: 97.0 mph at -6°Out: 92.4 mph at 23°Out: 92.1 mph at -2°Single: 91.5 mph at 10°Out: 79.1 mph at -5°Out: 81.4 mph at 72°Out: 84.7 mph at -2°Out: 80.7 mph at -2°Out: 92.0 mph at -5°Out: 89.7 mph at 27°Out: 66.8 mph at 53°Single: 85.8 mph at 16°Out: 90.1 mph at -29°Home run: 101.3 mph at 25°Home run: 105.1 mph at 23°Single: 79.1 mph at -38°Out: 78.4 mph at 84°Out: 29.9 mph at -2°Out: 96.8 mph at 23°Out: 88.6 mph at 34°Out: 100.4 mph at 15°Out: 80.5 mph at 67°Out: 71.0 mph at 78°Out: 69.6 mph at -45°Single: 68.7 mph at -48°Out: 91.8 mph at 50°Single: 68.7 mph at 37°Single: 101.4 mph at -1°Out: 84.7 mph at 40°Out: 91.6 mph at 21°
20% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.2%52.6%+1.6
2+ total bases27.8%25.6%+2.2
Home run7.1%5.8%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+2.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+2.4
Home run
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Christian Vázquez against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.258.26932.8%32.7%10About league average vs these
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.344.35512.6%17.0%26About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.241.25228.2%31.3%3Little history vs this shape
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.315.32617.5%22.9%11About league average vs these
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.338.3498.1%11.1%27About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Christian Vázquez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.200.200.200.180.15020.0%0.0%31.2%85.298.40.0%25.0%12.5%
Last 15 G1535.188.235.375.271.23220.0%5.7%15.2%84.6105.17.7%23.1%26.9%
Last 30 G2968.185.209.323.248.20227.9%2.9%19.7%82.3105.14.3%21.3%31.9%
90 days2968.185.209.323.248.20227.9%2.9%19.7%82.3105.14.3%21.3%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 21%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.000.000.000.000.14650.0%0.0%28.6%81.088.30.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G69.125.222.125.178.23644.4%11.1%20.8%86.492.10.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1423.222.318.278.284.31626.1%13.0%25.0%83.3100.40.0%21.4%50.0%
90 days1423.222.318.278.284.31626.1%13.0%25.0%83.3100.40.0%21.4%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 29%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.143.143.143.129.14928.6%0.0%30.4%84.398.40.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1544.175.233.325.251.23325.0%6.8%16.7%84.9105.16.7%20.0%30.0%
Last 30 G3091.193.236.313.257.23027.5%5.5%21.1%82.5105.13.3%21.3%36.1%
90 days3091.193.236.313.257.23027.5%5.5%21.1%82.5105.13.3%21.3%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 15%
Christian Vázquez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating3Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0steady
wOBA / xwOBA.249 / .239results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball92.694.963.016Out
Sep 24RHPFastball98.898.0-2.296Out
Sep 24RHPCutter90.372.128.759Single
Sep 18RHPFastball92.189.378.018Out
Sep 18RHPFastball92.681.745.031Out
Sep 10RHPSinker94.658.2-10.061Out
Sep 10RHPSinker95.188.6-19.072Out
Sep 6LHPChangeup83.988.30.187Out
Sep 6LHPFastball90.673.831.398Out
Sep 6RHPFastball97.298.4-3.250Single
Sep 2RHPCurveball80.997.0-6.191Force out
Sep 2RHPFastball93.092.423.185Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411001
Sep 18200000
Sep 12300003
Sep 10200000
Sep 6311000
Sep 2300000
Aug 31411011
Aug 29200000
Aug 26300002
Aug 23300001

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Christian Vázquez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Christian Vázquez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.8%42.4%
Whiff%23.6%22.2%
Contact%76.4%77.8%
Chase%43.8%39.8%
wOBA.213.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.2%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.275
K%21.7%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%19.2%
Avg EV85.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

68 PA
wOBA.263
xwOBA vs this mix.225against pitches like his
RV/100-1.17
Hard-hit%17.0%
K%26.9%
BB%6.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Christian Vázquez: every projection we've made →