MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 4Jose Altuve
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.300wOBA vs RHP.246xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .258 vs league .269 (about even).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .345 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .242 vs league .252 (about even).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .315 vs league .326 (about even).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .339 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jose Altuve's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jose Altuve's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.6 mph at -26°Out: 96.0 mph at -2°Out: 98.9 mph at 17°Single: 95.2 mph at 5°Single: 91.2 mph at 4°Single: 101.1 mph at -7°Single: 82.7 mph at 19°Out: 80.9 mph at 34°Home run: 89.5 mph at 32°Single: 41.5 mph at -53°Out: 101.5 mph at 5°Single: 91.5 mph at 13°Out: 98.8 mph at -9°Single: 33.9 mph at -9°Single: 106.3 mph at 6°Single: 65.5 mph at -50°Out: 72.1 mph at 37°Out: 105.6 mph at 16°Double: 105.8 mph at 16°Out: 62.8 mph at 54°Out: 84.0 mph at 0°Out: 86.8 mph at -14°Out: 84.5 mph at 33°Out: 52.0 mph at 2°Single: 82.4 mph at 22°Out: 92.1 mph at -19°Out: 76.3 mph at 33°Out: 76.7 mph at -28°Out: 85.5 mph at 33°Out: 91.5 mph at 63°Out: 78.6 mph at 65°Out: 56.5 mph at -47°Out: 91.7 mph at 42°Double: 99.9 mph at 28°Out: 97.5 mph at 38°Single: 42.1 mph at -58°Out: 93.9 mph at -2°Out: 108.7 mph at -25°Out: 89.4 mph at 31°Single: 41.1 mph at -31°
30% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.0%61.0%+2.1
2+ total bases36.1%33.3%+2.8
Home run9.8%8.0%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+2.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
+2.8
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jose Altuve against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.258.26923.2%32.7%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.345.35513.0%17.0%64About league average vs these
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.242.25225.7%31.3%6Little history vs this shape
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.315.32616.5%22.9%43About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.339.3497.7%11.1%68About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jose Altuve · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.353.353.353.318.27235.3%0.0%31.6%92.8106.30.0%54.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1547.234.234.255.218.20719.1%0.0%20.0%82.6108.70.0%23.7%21.1%
Last 30 G2994.236.266.326.261.24117.0%4.3%16.0%85.2108.71.4%32.4%25.7%
90 days68234.242.282.365.297.24017.9%5.6%16.6%84.6108.71.7%30.9%28.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.600.6001.200.760.23220.0%0.0%12.5%66.6101.50.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G816.400.438.800.516.33018.8%6.2%21.2%85.3103.68.3%50.0%41.7%
Last 30 G1633.355.394.645.441.28627.3%3.0%27.7%85.8103.64.5%40.9%50.0%
90 days3265.317.369.533.389.28120.0%4.6%23.7%83.2103.62.1%31.9%36.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.409.409.545.418.26331.8%0.0%28.3%85.8106.30.0%46.7%26.7%
Last 15 G1563.274.286.387.294.23819.0%1.6%20.3%83.2108.72.0%30.0%26.0%
Last 30 G30127.267.299.408.308.25319.7%3.9%19.2%85.4108.72.1%34.4%31.2%
90 days71299.258.301.401.317.24918.4%5.4%18.2%84.3108.71.8%31.1%30.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 225 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
Jose Altuve · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating7Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches16trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.318 / .255running 63 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCurveball77.478.6-26.040Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper85.196.0-2.326Force out
Sep 23RHPSinker98.598.917.535Out
Sep 23RHPSinker97.695.25.449Single
Sep 23RHPSinker98.991.24.391Single
Sep 22RHPFastball96.6101.1-7.250Single
Sep 22RHPSplitter79.482.719.843Single
Sep 22RHPSinker95.380.934.042Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.389.532.074Home run
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.941.5-53.261Single
Sep 20LHPFastball91.6101.55.541Out
Sep 19RHPSlider86.591.513.921Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 23522002
Sep 22522002
Sep 20425101
Sep 19433000
Sep 18411001
Sep 17412001
Sep 16411000
Sep 15400000
Sep 13400000

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Jose Altuve bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jose Altuve with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.5%42.4%
Whiff%20.1%22.2%
Contact%79.9%77.8%
Chase%44.6%39.8%
wOBA.238.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.5%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.327
K%18.7%
BB%5.9%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%2.1%
Hard-hit%23.8%
Avg EV84.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

232 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.246against pitches like his
RV/100-0.59
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%18.7%
BB%5.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jose Altuve: every projection we've made →