MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 8Lucas Spence
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.338wOBA vs RHP.300xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .320 vs league .317 (about even).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .358 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .266 vs league .263 (about even).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .369 vs league .366 (about even).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .356 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Lucas Spence's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Lucas Spence's last 27 balls in playHit (9)Out (18)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.2 mph at 29°Home run: 105.8 mph at 24°Home run: 96.9 mph at 30°Home run: 101.8 mph at 24°Out: 50.8 mph at 55°Single: 92.1 mph at -14°Out: 92.6 mph at -14°Out: 85.0 mph at -38°Out: 103.6 mph at 16°Out: 104.8 mph at -5°Out: 88.0 mph at 23°Out: 86.3 mph at -11°Single: 91.4 mph at 12°Out: 91.8 mph at 52°Out: 71.6 mph at -28°Out: 90.0 mph at -30°Double: 98.0 mph at 22°Out: 106.9 mph at 6°Out: 107.3 mph at -6°Out: 101.1 mph at 33°Out: 82.4 mph at -40°Single: 79.7 mph at 18°Single: 106.9 mph at 7°Out: 84.2 mph at 57°Out: 75.9 mph at 9°Out: 96.7 mph at 39°Single: 103.7 mph at -21°
48% hit 95+ mph37% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.2%54.1%+2.1
2+ total bases34.3%31.4%+2.9
Home run13.7%11.1%+2.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+2.7
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+3.0
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+2.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Lucas Spence against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.320.31735.9%25.5%2Little history vs this shape
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.358.35525.9%16.4%9About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.266.26338.9%28.3%3Little history vs this shape
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.369.36626.6%17.2%9About league average vs these
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.356.35221.1%13.3%8Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lucas Spence · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.444.5001.444.760.44430.0%10.0%45.0%90.6105.833.3%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G1336.188.278.500.364.28633.3%8.3%40.8%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
Last 30 G1336.188.278.500.364.28633.3%8.3%40.8%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
90 days1336.188.278.500.364.28633.3%8.3%40.8%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 19 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 26%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.000.250.000.175.20450.0%25.0%50.0%92.692.60.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G914.231.286.231.243.28435.7%7.1%36.4%95.2107.312.5%50.0%25.0%
Last 30 G914.231.286.231.243.28435.7%7.1%36.4%95.2107.312.5%50.0%25.0%
90 days914.231.286.231.243.28435.7%7.1%36.4%95.2107.312.5%50.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 8 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 25%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.333.4291.083.593.37635.7%14.3%46.2%90.9105.828.6%57.1%57.1%
Last 15 G1450.200.280.422.330.28534.0%8.0%39.8%92.3107.311.1%48.1%37.0%
Last 30 G1450.200.280.422.330.28534.0%8.0%39.8%92.3107.311.1%48.1%37.0%
90 days1450.200.280.422.330.28534.0%8.0%39.8%92.3107.311.1%48.1%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 27 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 26%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 11%
FormHot
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .301results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.196.229.398Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup85.8105.8241.727Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.596.930.461Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.1101.8241.020Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball96.450.855.005Out
Jul 31RHPOffspeed54.492.1-14.135Single
Jul 29LHPSinker88.592.6-14.117Out
Jul 27RHPChangeup90.485.0-38.055Out
Jul 27RHPSplitter87.5103.616.591Out
Jul 27RHPSlider89.7104.8-5.382Fielder's choice
Jul 25LHPSlider86.888.023.184Out
Jul 25RHPChangeup79.586.3-11.129Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 244312300
Sep 23400012
Jul 31111000
Jul 29400012
Jul 28100001
Jul 27400001
Jul 25400002
Jul 24511003
Jul 22300001
Jul 21412001

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Lucas Spence bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Lucas Spence with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.1%41.0%
Whiff%24.8%21.3%
Contact%75.2%78.7%
Chase%37.7%39.6%
wOBA.235.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.3%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.317
K%25.2%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%26.0%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

36 PA
wOBA.338
xwOBA vs this mix.300against pitches like his
RV/1000.20
Hard-hit%25.6%
K%28.2%
BB%8.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lucas Spence: every projection we've made →