MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · OAK · batting 5Zack Gelof
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · HOUTBD
Stable
3.9projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Zack Gelof's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 101.8 mph at 26°Out: 86.8 mph at 51°Home run: 103.1 mph at 25°Single: 87.0 mph at 1°Out: 53.0 mph at 79°Double: 87.4 mph at 24°Out: 80.9 mph at 84°Out: 96.5 mph at 0°Home run: 101.9 mph at 31°Out: 104.8 mph at 30°Out: 99.4 mph at 27°Single: 102.9 mph at 13°Single: 84.7 mph at -6°Single: 90.1 mph at 8°Out: 76.2 mph at -39°Single: 98.2 mph at 4°Out: 83.5 mph at 29°Out: 99.5 mph at -6°Home run: 103.8 mph at 25°Out: 92.6 mph at 56°Single: 82.3 mph at 17°Out: 94.7 mph at 8°Out: 98.3 mph at -34°Out: 98.0 mph at 49°Out: 92.7 mph at 69°Out: 103.3 mph at 33°Out: 93.5 mph at -11°Out: 92.6 mph at 54°Out: 86.6 mph at 6°Home run: 106.4 mph at 31°Single: 104.1 mph at 7°Out: 74.7 mph at -2°Out: 109.0 mph at 4°Out: 89.5 mph at -28°Out: 108.8 mph at -18°Single: 75.1 mph at 27°Out: 80.1 mph at 40°Out: 91.2 mph at 52°Out: 96.8 mph at -7°Out: 106.4 mph at 7°
48% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.5%60.0%+2.5
2+ total bases40.6%37.5%+3.0
Home run19.0%16.6%+2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+2.9
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+3.4
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+2.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Zack Gelof · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.500.571.750.564.5437.1%7.1%27.3%89.5104.827.3%45.5%45.5%
Last 15 G1447.256.319.488.375.38621.3%6.4%28.8%92.5109.018.8%46.9%31.2%
Last 30 G2894.226.301.417.329.37024.5%7.4%32.4%90.3109.016.4%45.9%31.1%
90 days43143.227.303.438.332.36324.5%7.7%29.6%88.8109.015.1%44.1%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 93 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 15%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.500.6251.667.831.5820.0%12.5%23.5%92.2103.133.3%50.0%66.7%
Last 15 G1015.333.467.917.610.4586.7%13.3%20.7%91.5103.118.2%36.4%54.5%
Last 30 G1835.300.400.767.503.41617.1%11.4%23.2%91.7105.420.8%50.0%41.7%
90 days2752.244.346.556.400.34723.1%11.5%27.1%89.1106.218.2%42.4%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 3%Fly ball 42%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.500.5911.056.661.5574.5%9.1%25.6%90.5104.829.4%47.1%52.9%
Last 15 G1562.273.355.582.433.40417.7%8.1%26.6%92.3109.018.6%44.2%37.2%
Last 30 G30129.246.328.509.377.38322.5%8.5%29.8%90.7109.017.6%47.1%34.1%
90 days46195.231.314.468.350.35824.1%8.7%28.9%88.8109.015.9%43.7%31.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 126 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 12%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 12%
Zack Gelof · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.343 / .364running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup87.4101.8261.262Home run
Sep 24RHPCutter86.986.851.003Out
Sep 24LHPSlider85.4103.1251.331Home run
Sep 23RHPSinker98.787.01.271Single
Sep 23RHPCutter87.153.079.010Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup77.787.424.157Double
Sep 22LHPCurveball79.080.984.003Out
Sep 22LHPSlider86.996.50.433Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper78.8101.9311.215Home run
Sep 20RHPSweeper88.4104.8301.645Out
Sep 20RHPFastball98.199.427.860Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball82.6102.913.904Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24428210
Sep 23423000
Sep 22514110
Sep 20422000
Sep 19522001
Sep 18414102
Sep 17411000
Sep 16400001
Sep 15300001
Sep 13525120

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Zack Gelof: every projection we've made →