MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 4Cal Raleigh
Switch hitterTalent grade APowerNormal
.329wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%2.6trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. Cal Raleigh: wOBA .363 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. Cal Raleigh: wOBA .344 vs league .342 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Cal Raleigh: wOBA .292 vs league .290 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Cal Raleigh: wOBA .352 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cal Raleigh's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Cal Raleigh's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 103.9 mph at 2°Out: 98.4 mph at 3°Out: 94.2 mph at 54°Out: 105.3 mph at 7°Out: 92.1 mph at 47°Out: 95.1 mph at 53°Out: 79.0 mph at 68°Out: 69.6 mph at -36°Out: 85.9 mph at 69°Out: 83.0 mph at 52°Home run: 111.7 mph at 32°Double: 74.1 mph at 29°Double: 112.4 mph at 13°Single: 95.3 mph at 16°Out: 90.6 mph at 43°Out: 91.0 mph at 66°Out: 82.2 mph at 38°Home run: 106.1 mph at 30°Out: 98.7 mph at 21°Out: 101.2 mph at -4°Single: 73.1 mph at 29°Out: 100.9 mph at 40°Out: 90.5 mph at 52°Out: 93.1 mph at 29°Out: 90.8 mph at 33°Out: 102.2 mph at 40°Out: 61.8 mph at -8°Out: 98.4 mph at -7°Out: 110.3 mph at -4°Single: 90.4 mph at 20°Out: 83.0 mph at 31°Out: 82.9 mph at -21°Out: 91.7 mph at 42°Double: 101.7 mph at 22°Out: 57.4 mph at -75°Out: 85.9 mph at 67°Single: 92.7 mph at 15°Single: 93.7 mph at 14°Single: 101.6 mph at 14°Double: 93.8 mph at 13°
40% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.8%53.3%+1.5
2+ total bases39.6%37.4%+2.1
Home run22.5%19.5%+2.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.9
Home run
Starter
+2.6
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Cal Raleigh against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.363.36221.5%18.3%31About league average vs these
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.344.34236.0%27.4%11About league average vs these
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.292.29033.6%25.8%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.352.35016.2%13.5%33About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Cal Raleigh · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.091.333.182.270.30426.7%26.7%27.0%87.6105.30.0%42.9%14.3%
Last 15 G1336.125.222.188.197.22033.3%11.1%30.3%90.7110.30.0%35.0%30.0%
Last 30 G2772.262.375.656.428.39427.8%15.3%30.5%93.4110.319.5%53.7%34.1%
90 days64173.197.335.408.332.32827.7%16.2%27.9%91.1110.313.8%42.6%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 94 balls in play
Ground 20%Line drive 19%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 28%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.200.333.800.450.5230.0%16.7%20.0%95.9111.720.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1330.174.333.478.357.37326.7%20.0%28.6%91.9112.418.8%50.0%31.2%
Last 30 G2456.234.339.511.368.35830.4%14.3%33.0%92.5112.412.9%48.4%38.7%
90 days58122.183.295.423.315.33235.2%13.1%32.7%93.1112.416.1%50.0%40.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.125.333.375.321.36719.0%23.8%25.5%91.0111.78.3%41.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1566.145.273.309.268.28930.3%15.2%29.6%91.2112.48.3%41.7%30.6%
Last 30 G30128.250.359.593.402.37828.9%14.8%31.6%93.0112.416.7%51.4%36.1%
90 days72295.191.319.415.325.33030.8%14.9%29.9%91.9112.414.7%45.5%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 26%Line drive 20%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 23%
Cal Raleigh · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating71Above average
Last 100 pitches70steady
wOBA / xwOBA.325 / .337results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.8103.92.500Out
Sep 24LHPFastball86.998.43.422Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.694.254.005Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.5105.37.581Out
Sep 22LHPSlider84.192.147.000Out
Sep 22RHPSlider85.195.153.005Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.479.068.005Out
Sep 20RHPSlider90.469.6-36.075Out
Sep 20RHPSlider88.585.969.011Out
Sep 19LHPSweeper77.783.052.013Out
Sep 19LHPSinker90.4111.7322.000Home run
Sep 19RHPFastball97.774.129.595Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400020
Sep 23500012
Sep 22400010
Sep 20400011
Sep 19426101
Sep 18400004
Sep 16523011
Sep 15400002
Sep 14414102
Sep 13511002

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
Cal Raleigh bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Cal Raleigh with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.5%41.0%
Whiff%23.4%21.3%
Contact%76.6%78.7%
Chase%39.9%39.6%
wOBA.239.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.4%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.347
K%30.1%
BB%14.4%
Whiff%14.0%
Barrel%8.1%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV91.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

173 PA
wOBA.329
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/1000.11
Hard-hit%23.5%
K%27.6%
BB%14.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cal Raleigh: every projection we've made →