Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christian Moore's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 49.7% | 50.2% | -0.5 |
| 2+ total bases | 25.6% | 25.9% | -0.4 |
| Home run | 9.0% | 8.6% | +0.4 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Christian Moore against each of Kade Anderson's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 41% | 93.5 | +7″ / +16″ | .344 | .347 | 19.8% | 17.7% | 11 | About league average vs these |
| Slider | 24% | 87.9 | -4″ / -1″ | .295 | .299 | 31.8% | 30.5% | 3 | Little history vs this shape |
| Changeup | 18% | 84.8 | +13″ / +8″ | .300 | .303 | 36.7% | 31.1% | 5 | Little history vs this shape |
| Curveball | 16% | 81.8 | -8″ / -10″ | .292 | .295 | 30.0% | 28.9% | 4 | Little history vs this shape |
Statcast
opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 3 | 5 | .400 | .400 | .400 | .360 | .375 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 18.8% | 101.4 | 103.9 | 33.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Last 15 G | 10 | 22 | .250 | .318 | .300 | .284 | .291 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 31.2% | 98.3 | 105.9 | 16.7% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Last 30 G | 19 | 38 | .235 | .316 | .294 | .289 | .313 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 27.8% | 92.2 | 105.9 | 12.0% | 48.0% | 24.0% |
| 90 days | 19 | 38 | .235 | .316 | .294 | .289 | .313 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 27.8% | 92.2 | 105.9 | 12.0% | 48.0% | 24.0% |
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 4 | 12 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .371 | .302 | 41.7% | 8.3% | 35.0% | 81.0 | 102.7 | 16.7% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Last 15 G | 12 | 34 | .182 | .206 | .212 | .210 | .176 | 41.2% | 2.9% | 32.8% | 84.0 | 106.6 | 5.3% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| Last 30 G | 26 | 75 | .155 | .200 | .254 | .224 | .211 | 36.0% | 4.0% | 29.7% | 84.3 | 106.9 | 6.8% | 31.8% | 34.1% |
| 90 days | 26 | 75 | .155 | .200 | .254 | .224 | .211 | 36.0% | 4.0% | 29.7% | 84.3 | 106.9 | 6.8% | 31.8% | 34.1% |
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 17 | .312 | .353 | .375 | .368 | .324 | 41.2% | 5.9% | 27.8% | 87.8 | 103.9 | 22.2% | 55.6% | 33.3% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 56 | .208 | .250 | .245 | .239 | .221 | 39.3% | 5.4% | 32.2% | 89.5 | 106.6 | 9.7% | 48.4% | 29.0% |
| Last 30 G | 29 | 113 | .181 | .239 | .267 | .246 | .244 | 31.0% | 6.2% | 29.1% | 87.2 | 106.9 | 8.7% | 37.7% | 30.4% |
| 90 days | 29 | 113 | .181 | .239 | .267 | .246 | .244 | 31.0% | 6.2% | 29.1% | 87.2 | 106.9 | 8.7% | 37.7% | 30.4% |
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 96.1 | 102.7 | 23 | 1.171 | Double |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 94.9 | 72.3 | 43 | .305 | Single |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Changeup | 84.5 | 63.7 | -53 | .269 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Slider | 85.1 | 103.9 | 33 | 1.352 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Curveball | 73.4 | 98.7 | -6 | .274 | Single |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 98.1 | 87.9 | 9 | .488 | Double play |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Cutter | 89.3 | 100.9 | 19 | .468 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Curveball | 83.2 | 58.8 | -52 | .230 | Single |
| Sep 19 | LHP | Sweeper | 78.2 | 101.5 | -7 | .250 | Single |
| Sep 18 | LHP | Slider | 88.7 | 85.4 | 30 | .040 | Out |
| Sep 18 | RHP | Sinker | 94.7 | 98.3 | 12 | .920 | Single |
| Sep 16 | RHP | Sinker | 89.6 | 72.3 | -8 | .061 | Out |
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sep 22 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sep 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sep 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sep 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 24% | 33% | 26.7% | 20.8% | 21.6% |
| Fastball | 41% | 32% | 22.6% | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| Changeup | 18% | 23% | 19.0% | 11.8% | 18.3% |
| Curveball | 16% | 12% | 20.0% | 29.4% | 21.3% |
| Sinker | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.7% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 42.2% | 41.6% |
| Whiff% | 20.6% | 21.7% |
| Contact% | 79.4% | 78.3% |
| Chase% | 37.6% | 40.0% |
| wOBA | .241 | .245 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 22.8% | 24.0% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst left-handers, last 90 days
38 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 84 | 29% | 17% | 38% | .142 |
| Sep 14 | 72 | 25% | 14% | 35% | .368 |
| Sep 9 | 81 | 21% | 12% | 42% | .300 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.