MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 7Cole Young
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.326wOBA vs RHP.300xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. Cole Young: wOBA .363 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. Cole Young: wOBA .343 vs league .342 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Cole Young: wOBA .291 vs league .290 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Cole Young: wOBA .351 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cole Young's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Cole Young's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.1 mph at 30°Single: 91.8 mph at -13°Out: 91.5 mph at 37°Out: 67.9 mph at 62°Out: 91.6 mph at 28°Out: 83.5 mph at 51°Single: 88.3 mph at 14°Out: 89.9 mph at 27°Out: 91.3 mph at 38°Out: 95.9 mph at 10°Out: 101.3 mph at -21°Out: 94.2 mph at 24°Double: 104.0 mph at -6°Out: 102.9 mph at 4°Out: 101.2 mph at 10°Out: 53.0 mph at -22°Single: 77.0 mph at -6°Out: 79.8 mph at 56°Out: 83.0 mph at -10°Out: 96.0 mph at -19°Out: 84.9 mph at 36°Out: 81.3 mph at 56°Out: 107.6 mph at -5°Out: 67.9 mph at -10°Out: 102.3 mph at -20°Single: 97.1 mph at 19°Single: 97.0 mph at -8°Home run: 103.4 mph at 22°Out: 86.5 mph at -23°Triple: 100.0 mph at 35°Out: 101.5 mph at 26°Out: 79.6 mph at 7°Out: 99.8 mph at -10°Single: 86.0 mph at 7°Out: 97.0 mph at 33°Double: 104.4 mph at 23°Out: 55.6 mph at -33°Single: 97.4 mph at -1°Single: 90.2 mph at -8°Out: 76.4 mph at 32°
43% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.9%59.5%+0.4
2+ total bases32.8%32.1%+0.7
Home run10.1%8.7%+1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Cole Young against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.363.36215.3%18.3%30About league average vs these
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.343.34219.8%27.4%23About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.291.29015.0%25.8%33About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.351.35010.9%13.5%38About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Cole Young · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.167.231.167.192.27115.4%7.7%20.0%91.5102.90.0%30.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1432.241.312.345.297.26212.5%6.2%18.2%87.8107.64.0%32.0%28.0%
Last 30 G2874.212.297.333.285.27217.6%8.1%21.2%85.1110.65.7%28.3%34.0%
90 days67187.243.299.445.332.29913.9%5.9%14.6%88.5111.15.4%36.1%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 20%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.200.333.400.325.21116.7%16.7%23.5%93.0104.00.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1224.227.292.409.304.31520.8%4.2%20.5%93.5104.411.8%58.8%35.3%
Last 30 G2146.146.239.244.224.26021.7%6.5%19.5%87.2104.46.5%38.7%29.0%
90 days53106.229.302.312.280.28520.8%6.6%18.4%87.4108.64.1%37.8%27.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.176.263.235.234.25215.8%10.5%21.6%91.9104.00.0%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1556.235.304.373.300.28516.1%5.4%19.2%90.1107.67.1%42.9%31.0%
Last 30 G30120.187.275.299.262.26719.2%7.5%20.5%85.9110.66.0%32.1%32.1%
90 days73293.238.300.398.313.29416.4%6.1%16.1%88.1111.15.0%36.7%31.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 221 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 20%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
Cole Young · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating37Below average
Last 100 pitches13trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.314 / .303results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSlider80.793.130.189Out
Sep 24RHPFastball94.791.8-13.148Single
Sep 24LHPSweeper79.791.537.061Out
Sep 23RHPCutter88.867.962.003Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.791.628.096Out
Sep 23LHPSlider83.383.551.038Out
Sep 22RHPCutter88.488.314.903Single
Sep 20RHPFastball93.189.927.118Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup84.691.338.036Out
Sep 20RHPSplitter86.795.910.648Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup89.6101.3-21.123Out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.794.224.217Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411010
Sep 23400001
Sep 22411012
Sep 20300000
Sep 18412000
Sep 16400002
Sep 15411000
Sep 14400001
Sep 13100000
Sep 12636100

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
Cole Young bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Cole Young with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.9%41.0%
Whiff%17.0%21.3%
Contact%83.0%78.7%
Chase%42.7%39.6%
wOBA.256.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.3%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%17.1%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%8.3%
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%27.3%
Avg EV88.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

184 PA
wOBA.326
xwOBA vs this mix.300against pitches like his
RV/1000.18
Hard-hit%28.6%
K%15.3%
BB%6.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cole Young: every projection we've made →