MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 1J.P. Crawford
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.293wOBA vs RHP.300xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. J.P. Crawford: wOBA .351 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. J.P. Crawford: wOBA .332 vs league .342 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. J.P. Crawford: wOBA .280 vs league .290 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. J.P. Crawford: wOBA .340 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is J.P. Crawford's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

J.P. Crawford's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.2 mph at 67°Out: 60.5 mph at 14°Out: 98.0 mph at 38°Single: 97.1 mph at -10°Out: 81.3 mph at 56°Out: 97.4 mph at -19°Out: 88.0 mph at 25°Out: 90.3 mph at 57°Out: 89.5 mph at 38°Out: 83.1 mph at 13°Out: 58.5 mph at -11°Out: 97.2 mph at -12°Single: 102.5 mph at 5°Out: 71.9 mph at -22°Out: 72.5 mph at 17°Home run: 104.5 mph at 28°Out: 83.7 mph at 45°Out: 90.9 mph at 4°Out: 98.7 mph at 25°Out: 77.4 mph at -23°Single: 96.0 mph at 6°Out: 99.5 mph at -5°Out: 96.3 mph at 28°Out: 82.3 mph at 32°Out: 90.3 mph at 56°Out: 89.7 mph at 7°Home run: 101.0 mph at 33°Single: 103.5 mph at 5°Single: 80.5 mph at -26°Out: 66.7 mph at 61°Out: 88.6 mph at -18°Out: 86.8 mph at -15°Home run: 104.5 mph at 23°Out: 76.7 mph at 82°Out: 76.8 mph at 45°Out: 92.5 mph at -5°Out: 91.2 mph at 41°Single: 90.2 mph at 18°Out: 71.8 mph at 72°Out: 60.5 mph at 44°
33% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.6%59.9%-1.2
2+ total bases30.3%31.2%-0.9
Home run7.4%6.5%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

J.P. Crawford against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.351.36213.7%18.3%21About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.332.34223.4%27.4%14About league average vs these
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.280.29018.2%25.8%11About league average vs these
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.340.3509.8%13.5%31About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
J.P. Crawford · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.133.188.133.156.17818.8%6.2%22.2%86.4102.50.0%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1438.143.211.314.232.30115.8%5.3%14.8%86.5104.56.9%27.6%31.0%
Last 30 G2873.206.301.317.281.29117.8%11.0%16.8%87.5107.13.9%31.4%27.5%
90 days45134.207.306.310.289.30220.1%11.9%15.5%89.3107.63.3%37.8%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.000.167.000.117.16550.0%16.7%28.6%79.097.40.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1432.222.300.333.300.27515.6%6.2%9.8%84.0103.54.3%30.4%21.7%
Last 30 G2656.222.333.289.298.27219.6%10.7%10.3%81.5103.52.8%27.8%22.2%
90 days3670.236.368.309.323.28820.0%14.3%10.5%81.9103.52.3%27.9%23.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 16%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.100.182.100.145.17427.3%9.1%23.5%85.3102.50.0%35.7%21.4%
Last 15 G1570.177.250.323.262.28915.7%5.7%12.5%85.4104.55.8%28.8%26.9%
Last 30 G30129.213.315.306.288.28318.6%10.9%14.1%85.0107.13.4%29.9%25.3%
90 days47204.216.327.310.300.29720.1%12.7%13.9%86.9107.63.0%34.6%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 133 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 14%
J.P. Crawford · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating37Below average
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.297 / .302results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball96.479.267.003Out
Sep 24LHPSlider80.460.514.164Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.498.038.265Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.697.1-10.204Single
Sep 23RHPFastball97.481.356.035Out
Sep 23LHPSinker95.997.4-19.125Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.288.025.108Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper80.490.357.005Out
Sep 22RHPSlider84.289.538.028Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper86.083.113.691Out
Sep 20RHPSlider89.758.5-11.069Out
Sep 20RHPSinker93.497.2-12.150Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24500011
Sep 23511001
Sep 22400010
Sep 20411001
Sep 19400003
Sep 18514101
Sep 16511000
Sep 15400001
Sep 14525101
Sep 13511010

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
J.P. Crawford bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
J.P. Crawford with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.7%41.0%
Whiff%17.7%21.3%
Contact%82.3%78.7%
Chase%38.7%39.6%
wOBA.237.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.9%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.316
K%20.0%
BB%12.1%
Whiff%6.0%
Barrel%2.3%
Hard-hit%23.0%
Avg EV86.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

134 PA
wOBA.293
xwOBA vs this mix.300against pitches like his
RV/100-0.75
Hard-hit%25.1%
K%20.4%
BB%12.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.J.P. Crawford: every projection we've made →