MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 6Josh Naylor
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.308wOBA vs RHP.301xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .355 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .335 vs league .342 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .283 vs league .290 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .344 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Josh Naylor's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Josh Naylor's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.7 mph at 28°Out: 76.3 mph at 25°Out: 87.4 mph at -17°Single: 79.6 mph at 17°Out: 95.2 mph at 43°Out: 88.0 mph at 71°Out: 97.6 mph at -10°Out: 94.8 mph at 22°Out: 58.3 mph at 57°Out: 102.4 mph at -1°Out: 101.7 mph at 20°Out: 84.3 mph at -11°Out: 79.6 mph at 31°Out: 93.0 mph at -9°Out: 101.3 mph at 23°Out: 86.5 mph at -6°Out: 91.0 mph at -23°Out: 79.6 mph at -1°Out: 60.3 mph at 9°Single: 95.5 mph at -11°Out: 74.2 mph at 46°Out: 105.0 mph at 19°Out: 82.7 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at -2°Single: 98.5 mph at -13°Double: 96.0 mph at 20°Out: 60.6 mph at 17°Out: 93.0 mph at 28°Single: 82.4 mph at 12°Single: 88.5 mph at -16°Out: 97.0 mph at 24°Out: 79.9 mph at 8°Out: 53.3 mph at -53°Out: 100.0 mph at -17°Single: 99.3 mph at 0°Out: 78.1 mph at 32°Out: 90.3 mph at 22°Single: 80.7 mph at 21°Single: 67.0 mph at 37°Out: 99.7 mph at 8°
35% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.1%65.5%-0.4
2+ total bases35.0%35.3%-0.3
Home run7.4%6.5%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Josh Naylor against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.355.3629.3%18.3%21About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.335.34221.2%27.4%8Little history vs this shape; rarely misses them
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.283.29017.5%25.8%23About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.344.3506.4%13.5%43About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Josh Naylor · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.154.000.108.2660.0%15.4%16.7%89.5102.40.0%36.4%36.4%
Last 15 G1335.250.314.281.301.3058.6%8.6%14.1%89.4105.63.4%41.4%44.8%
Last 30 G2671.254.296.299.286.26112.7%5.6%14.5%87.3106.53.5%38.6%38.6%
90 days65188.263.324.310.303.30111.2%8.5%13.8%87.1108.51.3%38.3%37.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 149 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 23%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.125.125.125.112.35812.5%0.0%5.9%86.9101.314.3%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1329.241.241.276.270.3316.9%0.0%10.6%84.1105.17.7%38.5%46.2%
Last 30 G2456.255.268.273.265.3168.9%1.8%12.5%82.2105.14.1%24.5%38.8%
90 days56121.296.331.383.327.32611.6%2.5%17.3%84.6107.47.0%28.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 100 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 21%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.053.143.053.110.3014.8%9.5%12.8%88.5102.45.6%33.3%38.9%
Last 15 G1564.246.281.279.287.3177.8%4.7%12.6%86.9105.65.5%40.0%45.5%
Last 30 G30127.254.283.287.277.28611.0%3.9%13.7%85.0106.53.8%32.1%38.7%
90 days73309.276.327.339.312.31111.3%6.1%15.1%86.1108.53.6%34.1%38.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 249 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 7%
Josh Naylor · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating64Average
Last 100 pitches30trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .330running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup82.696.728.399Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper79.076.325.674Out
Sep 24LHPFastball87.087.4-17.070Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.879.617.916Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.695.243.034Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.588.071.000Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.497.6-10.163Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup83.594.822.243Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.558.357.005Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.3102.4-1.428Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker93.0101.720.642Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball80.884.3-11.075Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400010
Sep 23511010
Sep 22400001
Sep 20400000
Sep 19400000
Sep 18411000
Sep 16523000
Sep 15422001
Sep 14400000
Sep 13522010

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
Josh Naylor bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Josh Naylor with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.8%41.0%
Whiff%18.3%21.3%
Contact%81.7%78.7%
Chase%45.3%39.6%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.4%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.329
K%12.0%
BB%6.5%
Whiff%8.0%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Avg EV86.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

183 PA
wOBA.308
xwOBA vs this mix.301against pitches like his
RV/100-0.69
Hard-hit%29.8%
K%12.2%
BB%6.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Naylor: every projection we've made →