MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 9Leo Rivas
Switch hitterTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.331wOBA vs RHP.334xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .365 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .345 vs league .342 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .293 vs league .290 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .354 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Leo Rivas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Leo Rivas's last 16 balls in playHit (5)Out (11)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 88.1 mph at 4°Single: 94.4 mph at 10°Out: 86.9 mph at 6°Out: 90.7 mph at 27°Out: 88.1 mph at 45°Out: 99.0 mph at -6°Single: 64.9 mph at 31°Double: 96.7 mph at 9°Single: 89.6 mph at 16°Out: 81.2 mph at 8°Out: 86.1 mph at -28°Out: 75.4 mph at 66°Single: 100.8 mph at 15°Out: 83.3 mph at -27°Out: 97.2 mph at 46°Out: 88.5 mph at 7°
25% hit 95+ mph44% in the sweet spot31% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.4%53.1%-0.7
2+ total bases25.9%26.3%-0.4
Home run7.5%6.9%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Leo Rivas against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.365.36214.2%18.3%2Little history vs this shape
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.345.34223.3%27.4%2Little history vs this shape
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.293.29021.5%25.8%1Little history vs this shape
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.354.35010.4%13.5%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Leo Rivas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.500.500.625.494.4800.0%0.0%0.0%87.496.70.0%12.5%62.5%
Last 15 G713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
Last 30 G713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
90 days713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 11 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 27%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.200.000.140.27120.0%0.0%12.5%88.899.00.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G58.000.125.000.088.23125.0%0.0%16.7%86.099.00.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G58.000.125.000.088.23125.0%0.0%16.7%86.099.00.0%20.0%20.0%
90 days58.000.125.000.088.23125.0%0.0%16.7%86.099.00.0%20.0%20.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 80%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 20%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.333.385.417.358.3997.7%0.0%5.6%87.899.00.0%18.2%54.5%
Last 15 G821.263.333.316.298.34114.3%4.8%7.1%88.2100.80.0%25.0%43.8%
Last 30 G821.263.333.316.298.34114.3%4.8%7.1%88.2100.80.0%25.0%43.8%
90 days821.263.333.316.298.34114.3%4.8%7.1%88.2100.80.0%25.0%43.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 16 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 19%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 6%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.300 / .357running 57 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/8
2+ total bases1/8
Home run0/8

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.088.14.440Double play
Sep 24RHPFastball95.694.410.628Single
Aug 23RHPSplitter85.286.96.423Out
Aug 23RHPFastball75.790.727.118Out
Aug 23RHPSinker93.988.145.006Out
Aug 22LHPSinker92.399.0-6.274Out
Aug 22RHPChangeup84.964.931.809Single
Aug 22RHPFastball95.196.79.538Double
Aug 21RHPSweeper87.789.616.876Single
Aug 13LHPSweeper81.281.28.306Double play
Aug 13LHPFastball92.786.1-28.045Out
Aug 6LHPFastball94.375.466.003Out
Last 8 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24211000
Aug 23400001
Aug 22423000
Aug 21111000
Aug 13200000
Aug 12100001
Aug 6311001
Aug 2400010

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
Leo Rivas bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Leo Rivas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.8%41.0%
Whiff%19.7%21.3%
Contact%80.3%78.7%
Chase%38.8%39.6%
wOBA.244.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.7%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.333
K%21.3%
BB%13.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%17.8%
Avg EV87.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

13 PA
wOBA.331
xwOBA vs this mix.334against pitches like his
RV/1000.51
Hard-hit%24.6%
K%19.3%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Leo Rivas: every projection we've made →