MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SEA · batting 7Michael Arroyo
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.344wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.4projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 39% usage, 89.9 mph, -2.3″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .320 vs league .316 (about even).Cutter 39%Sweeper: 23% usage, 81.0 mph, -8.8″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .302 vs league .298 (about even).Sweeper 23%Splitter: 19% usage, 84.7 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .326 vs league .323 (about even).Splitter 19%Sinker: 18% usage, 92.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +5.8″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .353 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 18%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Michael Arroyo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Michael Arroyo's last 24 balls in playHit (9)Out (15)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 86.7 mph at 16°Single: 78.4 mph at -11°Out: 85.5 mph at -33°Out: 86.7 mph at -35°Out: 99.4 mph at 2°Out: 64.5 mph at 36°Out: 92.3 mph at 40°Out: 92.8 mph at 36°Out: 90.2 mph at 33°Out: 95.4 mph at 50°Single: 90.6 mph at 12°Out: 82.2 mph at 11°Single: 86.9 mph at 22°Double: 99.5 mph at 2°Single: 78.2 mph at 21°Out: 89.0 mph at -16°Out: 67.5 mph at 6°Home run: 103.6 mph at 32°Out: 87.2 mph at -7°Out: 100.0 mph at 20°Single: 106.0 mph at 8°Double: 104.0 mph at 19°Out: 79.7 mph at 63°Out: 76.8 mph at 69°
29% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.4%56.8%-1.4
2+ total bases31.5%32.8%-1.3
Home run9.6%10.0%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Michael Arroyo hits
Where they meet

.308 xwOBA for Michael Arroyo in the spots Ryan Johnson throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .302 (+6 points). His best spot against righties is down and left, outside, and Ryan Johnson puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Ryan Johnson · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing6%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing6%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 60% per swing8%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing7%35% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 45% per swing35%
All · 467 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%35% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters35%
Cutter · 182 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters11%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%42% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters42%
Sweeper · 160 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%20% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters20%19% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19%
Sinker · 84 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters22% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters22%32% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters32%
Splitter · 37 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Michael Arroyo · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 2 pitches seen.253xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .019 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 3 pitches seen.285xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .342 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .342 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .561 on 2 PA) · league .386 · 5 pitches seen.411xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .056 on 1 PA) · league .321 · 1 pitches seen.301xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .351 · 2 pitches seen.324xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .432 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 5 pitches seen.320xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .377 · 4 pitches seen.402xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .508 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 5 pitches seen.312xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .319 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 9 pitches seen.283
vs RHP · 44 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 20%33%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 9%60%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 14%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 28%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 32%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 49%0%
vs RHP · 44 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 62%100%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 66%0%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at 100% of 5 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 65%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 60%80%Swings at 0% of 4 pitches · league 24%0%Swings at 20% of 5 pitches · league 34%20%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 40%60%Swings at 22% of 9 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 44 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Michael Arroyo against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter39%89.9-2″ / +9″.320.31628.4%27.0%3Little history vs this shape
Sweeper23%81.0-9″ / +7″.302.29829.4%30.1%3Little history vs this shape
Splitter19%84.7+14″ / +1″.326.32327.9%28.6%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker18%92.7+14″ / +6″.353.35012.9%11.9%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Michael Arroyo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.143.143.143.129.12714.3%0.0%33.3%84.292.80.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1016.286.375.571.403.35412.5%12.5%24.0%87.1106.08.3%25.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1016.286.375.571.403.35412.5%12.5%24.0%87.1106.08.3%25.0%33.3%
90 days1016.286.375.571.403.35412.5%12.5%24.0%87.1106.08.3%25.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 17%Fly ball 42%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.333.500.333.625.5100.0%25.0%14.3%90.599.40.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1119.333.421.400.413.33821.1%15.8%11.8%89.8100.00.0%33.3%41.7%
Last 30 G1119.333.421.400.413.33821.1%15.8%11.8%89.8100.00.0%33.3%41.7%
90 days1119.333.421.400.413.33821.1%15.8%11.8%89.8100.00.0%33.3%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 42%Fly ball 8%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.200.273.200.309.2669.1%9.1%26.3%86.399.40.0%11.1%11.1%
Last 15 G1335.310.400.483.409.34617.1%14.3%16.9%88.5106.04.2%29.2%37.5%
Last 30 G1335.310.400.483.409.34617.1%14.3%16.9%88.5106.04.2%29.2%37.5%
90 days1335.310.400.483.409.34617.1%14.3%16.9%88.5106.04.2%29.2%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 29%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.410 / .372running 38 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider83.886.716.909Single
Sep 25RHPSlider87.078.4-11.073Single
Sep 25LHPSlider85.985.5-33.047Error
Sep 25RHPSlider90.086.7-35.042Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.399.42.384Force out
Sep 24RHPSweeper85.064.536.623Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.092.340.019Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.992.836.073Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper82.090.233.056Out
Sep 19LHPFastball88.295.450.003Out
Sep 19LHPSinker88.990.612.763Single
Sep 19RHPChangeup82.382.211.492Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 24200000
Sep 23200010
Sep 22200001
Sep 20100000
Sep 19422000
Sep 18212001
Sep 15100001
Sep 14311001
Sep 13400030

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%18.7%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%20.7%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%21.3%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Michael Arroyo bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Michael Arroyo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.7%43.3%
Whiff%24.5%23.5%
Contact%75.5%76.5%
Chase%38.7%39.4%
wOBA.238.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.0%24.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.325
K%22.1%
BB%8.9%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%25.1%
Avg EV88.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

16 PA
wOBA.344
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/1001.58
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%20.2%
BB%10.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA6 days' rest
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.7%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.8%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Michael Arroyo: every projection we've made →